Brest: Federico Cina vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Federico Cina (75%) · Federico Cina at 100¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 4

Federico Cina>99¢Nicolai Budkov Kjaer<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Federico Cina

Consensus Traders

Federico Cina 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.9K

Combined PnL

$-2.6K

Smart Money Entry

96.6¢ → 100¢

+3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralFederico Cina at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Federico Cina

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Federico Cina100%

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Federico Cina9 traders

Total Value$14.1K

Total Shares14,652

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer3 traders

Total Value$2.59

Total Shares170

Combined PnL+$0.71

Federico Cina — 75%Nicolai Budkov Kjaer — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Federico Cina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNicolai Budkov Kjaer 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrFederico Cina 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA Paul973973	Federico Cinaavg 97.2¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$83.89	89% 883-110 (993)
RN1	Federico Cinaavg 97¢	$6.4K	$4.5K	$-1.9K	54% 55711-47797 (103508)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Federico Cinaavg 95.8¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$218.01	52% 13552-12399 (25951)
LO looppau	Federico Cinaavg 99.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0.75	99% 10504-51 (10555)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Federico Cinaavg 76.8¢	$742.86	$793.47	+$50.61	54% 16864-14141 (31005)
└ Federico Cina leg	Federico Cinaavg 76.8¢	$467.36	$584	+$116.64
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 5.3¢	$275.5	$209.47	-$66.03
1L 1lovejump	Federico Cinaavg 96.8¢	$1.5K	$506.32	-$90.41	53% 622-545 (1167)
UP UpTheBlues	Federico Cinaavg 89.5¢	$574.51	$497.86	-$76.65	59% 44606-31003 (75609)
TH thestingsnake	Federico Cinaavg 91¢	$558.09	$336	-$218.58	60% 3963-2663 (6626)
tradecraft<$100	Federico Cinaavg 91¢	$91	$56	-$35	52% 5872-5504 (11376)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Federico Cinaavg 51.8¢	$5.59	$7.4	+$1.81	56% 1809-1410 (3219)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 4.7¢	$2.48	$2.15	-$0.33	53% 3047-2709 (5756)
TRCMCTR<$100	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 0.8¢	$0.89	$0.4	-$0.49	55% 3914-3141 (7055)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 7.2¢	$15.47	$0.03	+$1.52	48% 3652-3914 (7566)

Paul973973

Federico Cina

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$83.89

Record

89%

883-110 (993)

RN1

Federico Cina

Invested

$6,407.27

Value

$4.5K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

54%

55711-47797 (103508)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Federico Cina

Invested

$2,027.64

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$218.01

Record

52%

13552-12399 (25951)

looppau

Federico Cina

Invested

$1,498.5

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$0.75

Record

99%

10504-51 (10555)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Federico Cina

Invested

$742.86

Value

$793.47

PnL

+$50.61

Record

54%

16864-14141 (31005)

Both legs:

Federico Cina$467.3676.8¢+$116.64

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$275.55.3¢-$66.03

1lovejump

Federico Cina

Invested

$1,513.21

Value

$506.32

PnL

-$90.41

Record

53%

622-545 (1167)

UpTheBlues

Federico Cina

Invested

$574.51

Value

$497.86

PnL

-$76.65

Record

59%

44606-31003 (75609)

thestingsnake

Federico Cina

Invested

$558.09

Value

$336

PnL

-$218.58

Record

60%

3963-2663 (6626)

tradecraft<$100

Federico Cina

Invested

$91

Value

$56

PnL

-$35

Record

52%

5872-5504 (11376)

SchruteBucks<$100

Federico Cina

Invested

$5.59

Value

$7.4

PnL

+$1.81

Record

56%

1809-1410 (3219)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$2.48

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.33

Record

53%

3047-2709 (5756)

TRCMCTR<$100

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$0.89

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$0.49

Record

55%

3914-3141 (7055)

efntrickCTR<$100

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$15.47

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$1.52

Record

48%

3652-3914 (7566)

Research grade

NeutralFederico Cina at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Federico Cina

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Federico Cina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNicolai Budkov Kjaer 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrFederico Cina 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Federico Cina wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.