Taipei: Hou Chun Chien vs Kaichi Uchida

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Kaichi Uchida (64%) · Kaichi Uchida at 53¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 9

Hou Chun Chien48¢Kaichi Uchida52¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kaichi Uchida

Consensus Traders

Kaichi Uchida 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

$313.38

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 52.5¢

-13% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralKaichi Uchida at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kaichi Uchida

7 of 11 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hou Chun Chien48%

Kaichi Uchida53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hou Chun Chien4 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares8,249

Combined PnL+$255.43

Kaichi Uchida7 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares5,511

Combined PnL+$57.96

Hou Chun Chien — 36%Kaichi Uchida — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xF8164A94e27CdCeD0cC975e21308fB099B2D0433-1772692168144CTR	Hou Chun Chienavg 39.3¢	$2.7K	$3.2K	+$493.15	38% 159-259 (418)
poshposh	Kaichi Uchidaavg 71.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$19.43	58% 11000-8017 (19017)
0X 0x61A8D4b326218a2Fd2AbD32b0670b16bA2F41Ad4-1785951411525	Kaichi Uchidaavg 52.3¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$22.9	50% 102-101 (203)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Kaichi Uchidaavg 52.7¢	$667.35	$734.56	+$50.72	30% 122-291 (413)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Kaichi Uchidaavg 57.2¢	$669.19	$623.08	-$46.1	55% 5714-4753 (10467)
└ Kaichi Uchida leg	Kaichi Uchidaavg 57.2¢	$450.51	$373.93	-$76.58
└ Hou Chun Chien leg	Hou Chun Chienavg 46.1¢	$218.67	$249.15	+$30.48
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Hou Chun Chienavg 43.4¢	$496.58	$516.63	+$20.05	45% 6299-7631 (13930)
└ Hou Chun Chien leg	Hou Chun Chienavg 43.4¢	$264.09	$264.95	+$0.86
└ Kaichi Uchida leg	Kaichi Uchidaavg 52.2¢	$232.49	$251.67	+$19.19
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Hou Chun Chienavg 44.9¢	$1.2K	$379.87	-$229.01	60% 4138-2779 (6917)
SM smithagent	Kaichi Uchidaavg 69¢	$345	$337.5	-$7.5	49% 2405-2546 (4951)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Hou Chun Chienavg 47¢	$250.93	$244.17	-$6.75	59% 30783-21499 (52282)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Kaichi Uchidaavg 71¢	$227.83	$231.14	+$3.3	48% 1141-1244 (2385)
└ Kaichi Uchida leg	Kaichi Uchidaavg 71¢	$198.09	$149.27	+$4.19
└ Hou Chun Chien leg	Hou Chun Chienavg 47¢	$82.75	$81.87	-$0.88
DI dips.	Kaichi Uchidaavg 69¢	$149.49	$161.4	+$11.92	48% 5500-6037 (11537)
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100	Hou Chun Chienavg 48¢	$47	$45.04	-$1.96	54% 6256-5419 (11675)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Kaichi Uchidaavg 75.3¢	$11.3	$10.5	-$0.8	52% 7597-6891 (14488)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Kaichi Uchidaavg 68¢	$7.23	$7.39	+$0.16	85% 6112-1044 (7156)

0xF8164A94e27CdCeD0cC975e21308fB099B2D0433-1772692168144CTR

Hou Chun Chien

Invested

$2,700

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$493.15

Record

38%

159-259 (418)

poshposh

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$1,196.12

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$19.43

Record

58%

11000-8017 (19017)

0x61A8D4b326218a2Fd2AbD32b0670b16bA2F41Ad4-1785951411525

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$1,007.44

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$22.9

Record

50%

102-101 (203)

CandleHammerDrums

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$667.35

Value

$734.56

PnL

+$50.72

Record

30%

122-291 (413)

EulhunterARB<$100

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$669.19

Value

$623.08

PnL

-$46.1

Record

55%

5714-4753 (10467)

Both legs:

Kaichi Uchida$450.5157.2¢-$76.58

Hou Chun Chien$218.6746.1¢+$30.48

NotJumpARB<$100

Hou Chun Chien

Invested

$496.58

Value

$516.63

PnL

+$20.05

Record

45%

6299-7631 (13930)

Both legs:

Hou Chun Chien$264.0943.4¢+$0.86

Kaichi Uchida$232.4952.2¢+$19.19

thestingsnakeCTR

Hou Chun Chien

Invested

$1,249.76

Value

$379.87

PnL

-$229.01

Record

60%

4138-2779 (6917)

smithagent

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$345

Value

$337.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

49%

2405-2546 (4951)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Hou Chun Chien

Invested

$250.93

Value

$244.17

PnL

-$6.75

Record

59%

30783-21499 (52282)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$227.83

Value

$231.14

PnL

+$3.3

Record

48%

1141-1244 (2385)

Both legs:

Kaichi Uchida$198.0971¢+$4.19

Hou Chun Chien$82.7547¢-$0.88

dips.

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$149.49

Value

$161.4

PnL

+$11.92

Record

48%

5500-6037 (11537)

iWasEnoughCTR<$100

Hou Chun Chien

Invested

$47

Value

$45.04

PnL

-$1.96

Record

54%

6256-5419 (11675)

ameisgoat11<$100

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$11.3

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$0.8

Record

52%

7597-6891 (14488)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Kaichi Uchida

Invested

$7.23

Value

$7.39

PnL

+$0.16

Record

85%

6112-1044 (7156)

Research grade

NeutralKaichi Uchida at 53%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kaichi Uchida

7 of 11 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kaichi Uchida wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.