Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Aleksandar Kovacevic

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Aleksandar Kovacevic (71%) · Aleksandar Kovacevic at 59¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 7

Juan Manuel Cerundolo41¢Aleksandar Kovacevic59¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Consensus Traders

Aleksandar Kovacevic 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

-$299.44

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 59¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

Research candidateAleksandar Kovacevic at 59%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aleksandar Kovacevic

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Juan Manuel Cerundolo41%

Aleksandar Kovacevic59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aleksandar Kovacevic5 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares7,536

Combined PnL-$55.59

Juan Manuel Cerundolo2 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares5,436

Combined PnL-$243.85

Aleksandar Kovacevic — 71%Juan Manuel Cerundolo — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Aleksandar Kovacevic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAleksandar Kovacevic 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedAleksandar Kovacevic 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Aleksandar Kovacevic 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 56.1¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$72.56	38% 498-807 (1305)
RN1CTR	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 44¢	$2.4K	$2.1K	-$242.87	54% 56596-48765 (105361)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 54¢	$375	$381.94	+$17.36	58% 222-163 (385)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 55¢	$403.73	$310.85	+$6.87	58% 41902-30424 (72326)
└ Aleksandar Kovacevic leg	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 55¢	$196.43	$196.43	+$1.78
└ Juan Manuel Cerundolo leg	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 43¢	$109.33	$114.42	+$5.09
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 55¢	$27.17	$27.17	+$0	50% 3869-3825 (7694)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 46¢	$17.97	$17.97	-$0.98	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 59.1¢	$5.91	$5.5	-$0.41	85% 5310-912 (6222)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Aleksandar Kovacevicavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.75	+$0.03	48% 2389-2622 (5011)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$3,800

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$72.56

Record

38%

498-807 (1305)

RN1CTR

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$2,374.74

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$242.87

Record

54%

56596-48765 (105361)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$375

Value

$381.94

PnL

+$17.36

Record

58%

222-163 (385)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$403.73

Value

$310.85

PnL

+$6.87

Record

58%

41902-30424 (72326)

Both legs:

Aleksandar Kovacevic$196.4355¢+$1.78

Juan Manuel Cerundolo$109.3343¢+$5.09

NatoAlfista<$100

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$27.17

Value

$27.17

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3869-3825 (7694)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$17.97

Value

$17.97

PnL

-$0.98

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$5.91

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$0.41

Record

85%

5310-912 (6222)

ameisgoat11<$100

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

2389-2622 (5011)

Research grade

Research candidateAleksandar Kovacevic at 59%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Aleksandar Kovacevic

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Aleksandar Kovacevic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAleksandar Kovacevic 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedAleksandar Kovacevic 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Aleksandar Kovacevic 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aleksandar Kovacevic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.