Bratislava 2: Matyas Cerny vs Sebastian Sorger

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Sebastian Sorger (45%) · Sebastian Sorger at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 8

Matyas Cerny<1¢Sebastian Sorger>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sebastian Sorger

Consensus Traders

Sebastian Sorger 45%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

28.4¢ → 100¢

+251% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Sorger at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Sorger

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Matyas Cerny0%

Sebastian Sorger100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sebastian Sorger5 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares5,196

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Matyas Cerny6 traders

Total Value$552.4

Total Shares1,605

Combined PnL-$453.81

Sebastian Sorger — 45%Matyas Cerny — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Sebastian Sorgeravg 18.2¢	$441.25	$2.4K	+$1.1K	48% 1065-1167 (2232)
UP UpTheBlues	Sebastian Sorgeravg 31.2¢	$739.65	$2.4K	+$1.6K	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Matyas Cernyavg 37.7¢	$675.49	$534.05	-$72.8	60% 4106-2766 (6872)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Sebastian Sorgeravg 73.1¢	$435.69	$395.85	-$39.84	52% 13930-12706 (26636)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Matyas Cernyavg 50¢	$27.49	$18.04	-$9.45	51% 6078-5800 (11878)
TRCM<$100	Sebastian Sorgeravg 73¢	$3.96	$5.43	+$1.46	55% 3961-3191 (7152)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Sebastian Sorgeravg 76¢	$2.85	$2.65	-$0.2	52% 7504-6793 (14297)
poshposhCTR	Matyas Cernyavg 80¢	$240	$0.15	-$239.85	58% 10670-7658 (18328)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Matyas Cernyavg 47¢	$82.93	$0.09	-$82.84	48% 8966-9599 (18565)
RN1CTR<$100	Matyas Cernyavg 37.8¢	$47.89	$0.06	-$47.83	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Matyas Cernyavg 14¢	$1.05	$0	-$1.05	53% 5642-5057 (10699)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Sebastian Sorger

Invested

$441.25

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

48%

1065-1167 (2232)

UpTheBlues

Sebastian Sorger

Invested

$739.65

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

thestingsnakeCTR

Matyas Cerny

Invested

$675.49

Value

$534.05

PnL

-$72.8

Record

60%

4106-2766 (6872)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Sebastian Sorger

Invested

$435.69

Value

$395.85

PnL

-$39.84

Record

52%

13930-12706 (26636)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Matyas Cerny

Invested

$27.49

Value

$18.04

PnL

-$9.45

Record

51%

6078-5800 (11878)

TRCM<$100

Sebastian Sorger

Invested

$3.96

Value

$5.43

PnL

+$1.46

Record

55%

3961-3191 (7152)

ameisgoat11<$100

Sebastian Sorger

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

7504-6793 (14297)

poshposhCTR

Matyas Cerny

Invested

$240

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$239.85

Record

58%

10670-7658 (18328)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Matyas Cerny

Invested

$82.93

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$82.84

Record

48%

8966-9599 (18565)

RN1CTR<$100

Matyas Cerny

Invested

$47.89

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$47.83

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Matyas Cerny

Invested

$1.05

Value

PnL

-$1.05

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Sorger at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Sorger

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sebastian Sorger wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.