Brest: Robin Catry vs Dino Prizmic

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Dino Prizmic (50%) · Dino Prizmic at 87¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3

Robin Catry14¢Dino Prizmic86¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dino Prizmic

Consensus Traders

Dino Prizmic 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$38.53

Smart Money Entry

87.7¢ → 86.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDino Prizmic at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dino Prizmic

4 of 8 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Robin Catry14%

Dino Prizmic87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dino Prizmic4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,318

Combined PnL+$43.5

Robin Catry4 traders

Total Value$29.44

Total Shares293

Combined PnL-$4.97

Dino Prizmic — 50%Robin Catry — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Dino Prizmicavg 87.5¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$40.38	59% 44235-30607 (74842)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 90.7¢	$291.2	$292.12	+$0.92	54% 16729-14037 (30766)
└ Dino Prizmic leg	Dino Prizmicavg 90.7¢	$201.9	$210.26	+$8.36
└ Robin Catry leg	Robin Catryavg 6¢	$89.3	$81.86	-$7.44
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 88¢	$229.68	$240.74	+$11.07	52% 13465-12320 (25785)
└ Dino Prizmic leg	Dino Prizmicavg 88¢	$146.08	$148.57	+$2.49
└ Robin Catry leg	Robin Catryavg 9.5¢	$83.6	$92.17	+$8.58
EF efntrickARB<$100	Robin Catryavg 7¢	$64.35	$61.08	-$3.27	48% 3603-3858 (7461)
└ Robin Catry leg	Robin Catryavg 7¢	$40.6	$37.7	-$2.9
└ Dino Prizmic leg	Dino Prizmicavg 95¢	$23.75	$23.38	-$0.38
VeryLucky888<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 93¢	$59.12	$58.44	+$0.32	58% 40367-29157 (69524)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 89.5¢	$37.59	$38.01	+$0.42	58% 18290-13441 (31731)
0X 0x1111111111CTR<$100	Robin Catryavg 12¢	$31.2	$27.3	-$3.9	62% 1694-1057 (2751)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 89¢	$23.35	$25.73	+$2.38	60% 3883-2640 (6523)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Robin Catryavg 11.1¢	$2.72	$1.59	-$1.13	54% 2548-2182 (4730)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Robin Catryavg 5¢	$0.25	$0.33	+$0.08	50% 11935-12084 (24019)
RN1CTR<$100	Robin Catryavg 7¢	$0.24	$0.23	-$0.02	54% 55310-47345 (102655)

UpTheBlues

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$1,985.94

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$40.38

Record

59%

44235-30607 (74842)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$291.2

Value

$292.12

PnL

+$0.92

Record

54%

16729-14037 (30766)

Both legs:

Dino Prizmic$201.990.7¢+$8.36

Robin Catry$89.36¢-$7.44

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$229.68

Value

$240.74

PnL

+$11.07

Record

52%

13465-12320 (25785)

Both legs:

Dino Prizmic$146.0888¢+$2.49

Robin Catry$83.69.5¢+$8.58

efntrickARB<$100

Robin Catry

Invested

$64.35

Value

$61.08

PnL

-$3.27

Record

48%

3603-3858 (7461)

Both legs:

Robin Catry$40.67¢-$2.9

Dino Prizmic$23.7595¢-$0.38

VeryLucky888<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$59.12

Value

$58.44

PnL

+$0.32

Record

58%

40367-29157 (69524)

BillBenter2026<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$37.59

Value

$38.01

PnL

+$0.42

Record

58%

18290-13441 (31731)

0x1111111111CTR<$100

Robin Catry

Invested

$31.2

Value

$27.3

PnL

-$3.9

Record

62%

1694-1057 (2751)

thestingsnake<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$23.35

Value

$25.73

PnL

+$2.38

Record

60%

3883-2640 (6523)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Robin Catry

Invested

$2.72

Value

$1.59

PnL

-$1.13

Record

54%

2548-2182 (4730)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Robin Catry

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.33

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

11935-12084 (24019)

RN1CTR<$100

Robin Catry

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$0.02

Record

54%

55310-47345 (102655)

Research grade

NeutralDino Prizmic at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Dino Prizmic

4 of 8 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dino Prizmic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.