Guayaquil: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Alex Hernandez
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Camilo Ugo Carabelli (75%) · Camilo Ugo Carabelli at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
8
Camilo Ugo Carabelli 75%
$1.6K
$5.63
94.4¢ → 100¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralCamilo Ugo Carabelli at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH thestingsnake | Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 91.5¢ | $550.49 | $547.22 | -$3.27 | 60% 4006-2695 (6701) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA | Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 97¢ | $388 | $386 | -$2 | 68% 457-217 (674) |
 RN1CTR | Alex Hernandezavg 3¢ | $251.48 | $293.39 | +$41.91 | 54% 56053-48184 (104237) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 97.7¢ | $305.72 | $287.55 | -$18.17 | 52% 13670-12491 (26161) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 91.5¢ | $49.41 | $39.96 | -$9.45 | 58% 18510-13598 (32108) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 91¢ | $18.19 | $14.8 | -$3.4 | 55% 6996-5613 (12609) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Alex Hernandezavg 3¢ | $4.86 | $5.67 | +$0.81 | 52% 3741-3403 (7144) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 90¢ | $4.5 | $3.7 | -$0.8 | 47% 2189-2483 (4672) |
Invested
$550.49
Value
$547.22
PnL
-$3.27
Record
60%
4006-2695 (6701)
ARTEM-DZYUBAInvested
$388
Value
$386
PnL
-$2
Record
68%
457-217 (674)
RN1CTRInvested
$251.48
Value
$293.39
PnL
+$41.91
Record
54%
56053-48184 (104237)
Invested
$305.72
Value
$287.55
PnL
-$18.17
Record
52%
13670-12491 (26161)
Invested
$49.41
Value
$39.96
PnL
-$9.45
Record
58%
18510-13598 (32108)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$18.19
Value
$14.8
PnL
-$3.4
Record
55%
6996-5613 (12609)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4.86
Value
$5.67
PnL
+$0.81
Record
52%
3741-3403 (7144)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$3.7
PnL
-$0.8
Record
47%
2189-2483 (4672)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
thestingsnake
Camilo Ugo Carabelli — $547.22
ARTEM-DZYUBA
Camilo Ugo Carabelli — $386
RN1
CTRAlex Hernandez — $293.39
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Camilo Ugo Carabelli — $287.55
BillBenter2026
Camilo Ugo Carabelli — $39.96
0xheavy888
Camilo Ugo Carabelli — $14.8
HRTrading
CTRAlex Hernandez — $5.67
ameisgoat11
Camilo Ugo Carabelli — $3.7