Metz: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Robin Catry

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Alejandro Moro Canas (75%) · Alejandro Moro Canas at 59¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Alejandro Moro Canas59¢Robin Catry41¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Alejandro Moro Canas

Consensus Traders

Alejandro Moro Canas 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$25.3

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 58.5¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

Research candidateAlejandro Moro Canas at 59%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alejandro Moro Canas

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Alejandro Moro Canas59%

Robin Catry42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alejandro Moro Canas6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,889

Combined PnL-$29.26

Robin Catry2 traders

Total Value$28.14

Total Shares84

Combined PnL+$3.96

Alejandro Moro Canas — 75%Robin Catry — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Alejandro Moro Canas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlejandro Moro Canas 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlejandro Moro Canas 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alejandro Moro Canas 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 50¢	$1.1K	$971.25	-$78.75	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
└ Alejandro Moro Canas leg	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 50¢	$525	$619.5	+$94.5
└ Robin Catry leg	Robin Catryavg 50¢	$525	$351.75	-$173.25
38 38791873984189	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 59.6¢	$888.47	$886.68	-$1.79	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
OM omnibus-076daa	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 73¢	$167.43	$142.48	-$24.95	46% 643-756 (1399)
EF efntrick	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 59¢	$100.3	$101.15	+$0.85	46% 116-135 (251)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Robin Catryavg 30¢	$15	$16.75	+$1.75	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Robin Catryavg 27¢	$9.18	$11.39	+$2.21	50% 2190-2198 (4388)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 59¢	$8.85	$8.92	+$0.07	46% 479-565 (1044)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 72¢	$3.6	$2.95	-$0.65	43% 861-1147 (2008)
VeryLucky888<$100	Alejandro Moro Canasavg 72¢	$43.2	$2.59	-$2.8	53% 1909-1671 (3580)

NotJumpARB<$100

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$1,050

Value

$971.25

PnL

-$78.75

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

Both legs:

Alejandro Moro Canas$52550¢+$94.5

Robin Catry$52550¢-$173.25

38791873984189

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$888.47

Value

$886.68

PnL

-$1.79

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

omnibus-076daa

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$167.43

Value

$142.48

PnL

-$24.95

Record

46%

643-756 (1399)

efntrick

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$100.3

Value

$101.15

PnL

+$0.85

Record

46%

116-135 (251)

LimousinCTR<$100

Robin Catry

Invested

$15

Value

$16.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Robin Catry

Invested

$9.18

Value

$11.39

PnL

+$2.21

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$8.85

Value

$8.92

PnL

+$0.07

Record

46%

479-565 (1044)

ameisgoat11<$100

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$3.6

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$0.65

Record

43%

861-1147 (2008)

VeryLucky888<$100

Alejandro Moro Canas

Invested

$43.2

Value

$2.59

PnL

-$2.8

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

Research grade

Research candidateAlejandro Moro Canas at 59%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Alejandro Moro Canas

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Alejandro Moro Canas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlejandro Moro Canas 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlejandro Moro Canas 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alejandro Moro Canas 71% · 7

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alejandro Moro Canas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.