Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Angel Veliz, while the market favors Emilio Camacho (67%). 3 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Guayaquil: Emilio Camacho vs Angel Veliz

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Angel Veliz (27%) · Angel Veliz at 34¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 2

Emilio Camacho67¢Angel Veliz33¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Angel Veliz

Consensus Traders

Angel Veliz 27%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.2K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

39.9¢ → 33.5¢

-16% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAngel Veliz at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Angel Veliz

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Emilio Camacho 67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Emilio Camacho67%

Angel Veliz34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Angel Veliz3 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares21,182

Combined PnL+$359.34

Emilio Camacho8 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares15,323

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Angel Veliz — 27%Emilio Camacho — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xF8164A94e27CdCeD0cC975e21308fB099B2D0433-1772692168144CTR	Angel Velizavg 39.6¢	$8.0K	$8.5K	+$492.03	39% 151-238 (389)
RN1	Emilio Camachoavg 57.7¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$25.65	54% 55509-47585 (103094)
SA Salad1	Emilio Camachoavg 50.3¢	$3.1K	$4.2K	+$1.1K	50% 91-91 (182)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Emilio Camachoavg 46¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$175.73	52% 13528-12376 (25904)
└ Emilio Camacho leg	Emilio Camachoavg 46¢	$736	$928	+$192
└ Angel Veliz leg	Angel Velizavg 44¢	$357.99	$341.72	-$16.27
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Emilio Camachoavg 71.7¢	$436.94	$357.07	-$79.87	58% 18338-13470 (31808)
└ Emilio Camacho leg	Emilio Camachoavg 71.7¢	$258.96	$258.12	-$0.84
└ Angel Veliz leg	Angel Velizavg 51.3¢	$177.98	$98.95	-$79.03
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Angel Velizavg 47.5¢	$448.24	$316.32	-$131.92	54% 16767-14068 (30835)
latvian.demon	Emilio Camachoavg 66¢	$330	$290	-$40	54% 630-540 (1170)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Emilio Camachoavg 59.5¢	$284.94	$214.29	-$8.65	53% 610-537 (1147)
└ Emilio Camacho leg	Emilio Camachoavg 59.5¢	$154.75	$152.04	+$5.1
└ Angel Veliz leg	Angel Velizavg 50.7¢	$76	$62.25	-$13.75
TH thestingsnake	Emilio Camachoavg 46.7¢	$154.57	$207.02	+$75.22	60% 3942-2661 (6603)
0xheavy888	Emilio Camachoavg 58¢	$101.5	$107.63	+$6.13	56% 6858-5498 (12356)
EF efntrick<$100	Emilio Camachoavg 60.3¢	$27.15	$10.28	+$0.98	48% 3641-3901 (7542)
TRCMCTR<$100	Angel Velizavg 46¢	$8.76	$8	-$0.76	55% 3911-3136 (7047)
tradecraft<$100	Emilio Camachoavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.9	+$0.35	52% 5849-5477 (11326)
HRTrading<$100	Emilio Camachoavg 54¢	$1.08	$1.37	+$0.29	53% 2815-2479 (5294)

0xF8164A94e27CdCeD0cC975e21308fB099B2D0433-1772692168144CTR

Angel Veliz

Invested

$8,000

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$492.03

Record

39%

151-238 (389)

RN1

Emilio Camacho

Invested

$4,719

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$25.65

Record

54%

55509-47585 (103094)

Salad1

Emilio Camacho

Invested

$3,139.31

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

91-91 (182)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Emilio Camacho

Invested

$1,093.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$175.73

Record

52%

13528-12376 (25904)

Both legs:

Emilio Camacho$73646¢+$192

Angel Veliz$357.9944¢-$16.27

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Emilio Camacho

Invested

$436.94

Value

$357.07

PnL

-$79.87

Record

58%

18338-13470 (31808)

Both legs:

Emilio Camacho$258.9671.7¢-$0.84

Angel Veliz$177.9851.3¢-$79.03

HomeRunHazardCTR

Angel Veliz

Invested

$448.24

Value

$316.32

PnL

-$131.92

Record

54%

16767-14068 (30835)

latvian.demon

Emilio Camacho

Invested

$330

Value

$290

PnL

-$40

Record

54%

630-540 (1170)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Emilio Camacho

Invested

$284.94

Value

$214.29

PnL

-$8.65

Record

53%

610-537 (1147)

Both legs:

Emilio Camacho$154.7559.5¢+$5.1

Angel Veliz$7650.7¢-$13.75

thestingsnake

Emilio Camacho

Invested

$154.57

Value

$207.02

PnL

+$75.22

Record

60%

3942-2661 (6603)

0xheavy888

Emilio Camacho

Invested

$101.5

Value

$107.63

PnL

+$6.13

Record

56%

6858-5498 (12356)

efntrick<$100

Emilio Camacho

Invested

$27.15

Value

$10.28

PnL

+$0.98

Record

48%

3641-3901 (7542)

TRCMCTR<$100

Angel Veliz

Invested

$8.76

Value

PnL

-$0.76

Record

55%

3911-3136 (7047)

tradecraft<$100

Emilio Camacho

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.35

Record

52%

5849-5477 (11326)

HRTrading<$100

Emilio Camacho

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.37

PnL

+$0.29

Record

53%

2815-2479 (5294)

Research grade

NeutralAngel Veliz at 34%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Angel Veliz

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Emilio Camacho 67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Angel Veliz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.