Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Joao Lucas Da Silva, while the market favors Emilio Camacho (55%). 10 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Guayaquil: Emilio Camacho vs Joao Lucas Da Silva

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Joao Lucas Da Silva (71%) · Joao Lucas Da Silva at 45¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 5

Emilio Camacho55¢Joao Lucas Da Silva45¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Consensus Traders

Joao Lucas Da Silva 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.7K

Combined PnL

$-11.5K

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 44.9¢

-44% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralJoao Lucas Da Silva at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Joao Lucas Da Silva

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Emilio Camacho 55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Emilio Camacho55%

Joao Lucas Da Silva45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Joao Lucas Da Silva10 traders

Total Value$16.8K

Total Shares37,910

Combined PnL$-13.7K

Emilio Camacho4 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares8,010

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Joao Lucas Da Silva — 71%Emilio Camacho — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Joao Lucas Da Silva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJoao Lucas Da Silva 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrEmilio Camacho 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedJoao Lucas Da Silva 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Joao Lucas Da Silva 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 76.2¢	$16.7K	$9.7K	$-7.1K	54% 56079-48206 (104285)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 86.1¢	$9.9K	$5.1K	$-4.8K	54% 17016-14265 (31281)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Emilio Camachoavg 28.4¢	$2.1K	$4.1K	+$2.0K	38% 485-799 (1284)
TRCMCTR	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 84.3¢	$1.7K	$885	-$806	55% 3930-3168 (7098)
tradecraftCTR	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 84.3¢	$1.7K	$885	-$806	51% 5938-5623 (11561)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 52.8¢	$780.12	$832.45	+$52.33	52% 13683-12498 (26181)
└ Emilio Camacho leg	Emilio Camachoavg 41.3¢	$347.61	$488.97	+$141.36
└ Joao Lucas Da Silva leg	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 52.8¢	$432.51	$343.48	-$89.03
poshposhARB<$100	Emilio Camachoavg 55.8¢	$345.71	$366.1	+$20.39	59% 9732-6717 (16449)
└ Emilio Camacho leg	Emilio Camachoavg 55.8¢	$219.84	$228.83	+$8.98
└ Joao Lucas Da Silva leg	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 38.4¢	$125.86	$137.27	+$11.41
SE sentrio	Emilio Camachoavg 35.4¢	$230.69	$292.23	+$61.54	50% 24880-24580 (49460)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 93.3¢	$247.23	$184.44	-$62.79	58% 18521-13604 (32125)
└ Emilio Camacho leg	Emilio Camachoavg 55.6¢	$122.27	$129.03	+$6.76
└ Joao Lucas Da Silva leg	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 93.3¢	$124.96	$55.41	-$69.55
heyboy800CTR	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 81.5¢	$284.37	$148.3	-$136.07	61% 905-571 (1476)
VeryLucky888	Emilio Camachoavg 3.3¢	$6.6	$110.4	+$103.8	58% 41297-29942 (71239)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 68.5¢	$68.35	$48.89	-$19.46	52% 3772-3441 (7213)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Emilio Camachoavg 56.6¢	$14.6	$14.38	-$0.22	59% 30246-20951 (51197)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 86¢	$20	$10.29	-$9.71	67% 23223-11629 (34852)
98 0x98db...dd17CTR<$100	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 38.1¢	$7.23	$7.96	+$0.73	—
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 84.3¢	$758.7	$3.16	-$2.25	56% 1831-1423 (3254)
FR frohp5CTR<$100	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 95.5¢	$3	$1.23	-$1.77	65% 1976-1052 (3028)

RN1CTR

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$16,727.42

Value

$9.7K

PnL

$-7.1K

Record

54%

56079-48206 (104285)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$9,866.14

Value

$5.1K

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

54%

17016-14265 (31281)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Emilio Camacho

Invested

$2,089

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

38%

485-799 (1284)

TRCMCTR

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$1,686

Value

$885

PnL

-$806

Record

55%

3930-3168 (7098)

tradecraftCTR

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$1,686

Value

$885

PnL

-$806

Record

51%

5938-5623 (11561)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$780.12

Value

$832.45

PnL

+$52.33

Record

52%

13683-12498 (26181)

Both legs:

Emilio Camacho$347.6141.3¢+$141.36

Joao Lucas Da Silva$432.5152.8¢-$89.03

poshposhARB<$100

Emilio Camacho

Invested

$345.71

Value

$366.1

PnL

+$20.39

Record

59%

9732-6717 (16449)

Both legs:

Emilio Camacho$219.8455.8¢+$8.98

Joao Lucas Da Silva$125.8638.4¢+$11.41

sentrio

Emilio Camacho

Invested

$230.69

Value

$292.23

PnL

+$61.54

Record

50%

24880-24580 (49460)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$247.23

Value

$184.44

PnL

-$62.79

Record

58%

18521-13604 (32125)

Both legs:

Emilio Camacho$122.2755.6¢+$6.76

Joao Lucas Da Silva$124.9693.3¢-$69.55

heyboy800CTR

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$284.37

Value

$148.3

PnL

-$136.07

Record

61%

905-571 (1476)

VeryLucky888

Emilio Camacho

Invested

$6.6

Value

$110.4

PnL

+$103.8

Record

58%

41297-29942 (71239)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$68.35

Value

$48.89

PnL

-$19.46

Record

52%

3772-3441 (7213)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Emilio Camacho

Invested

$14.6

Value

$14.38

PnL

-$0.22

Record

59%

30246-20951 (51197)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$20

Value

$10.29

PnL

-$9.71

Record

67%

23223-11629 (34852)

0x98db...dd17CTR<$100

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$7.23

Value

$7.96

PnL

+$0.73

Record

—

SchruteBucksCTR

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$758.7

Value

$3.16

PnL

-$2.25

Record

56%

1831-1423 (3254)

frohp5CTR<$100

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$1.77

Record

65%

1976-1052 (3028)

Research grade

NeutralJoao Lucas Da Silva at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Joao Lucas Da Silva

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Emilio Camacho 55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Joao Lucas Da Silva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJoao Lucas Da Silva 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrEmilio Camacho 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedJoao Lucas Da Silva 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Joao Lucas Da Silva 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Joao Lucas Da Silva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.1%

44.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$112.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

212.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.