Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Zizou Bergs
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Zizou Bergs (67%) · Zizou Bergs at 71¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 9
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Neutral
Zizou Bergs
6
Zizou Bergs 67%
$3.4K
$9.13
71¢ → 70.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralZizou Bergs at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Zizou Bergsavg 71¢ | $2.6K | $2.0K | +$22.98 | 58% 43195-31436 (74631) |
K5 k56CTR | Ignacio Buseavg 29.4¢ | $750 | $726.92 | -$23.08 | 57% 890-659 (1549) |
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR | Ignacio Buseavg 29¢ | $328.73 | $334.4 | +$5.67 | 46% 380-445 (825) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Zizou Bergsavg 71¢ | $223.91 | $225.49 | +$1.58 | 65% 1790-978 (2768) |
 0xheavy888 | Zizou Bergsavg 70.5¢ | $138.18 | $140.14 | +$1.96 | 55% 7414-5959 (13373) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Zizou Bergsavg 71¢ | $3.55 | $3.57 | +$0.02 | 52% 7590-6879 (14469) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,608.29
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$22.98
Record
58%
43195-31436 (74631)
Invested
$750
Value
$726.92
PnL
-$23.08
Record
57%
890-659 (1549)
Invested
$328.73
Value
$334.4
PnL
+$5.67
Record
46%
380-445 (825)
Invested
$223.91
Value
$225.49
PnL
+$1.58
Record
65%
1790-978 (2768)
0xheavy888Invested
$138.18
Value
$140.14
PnL
+$1.96
Record
55%
7414-5959 (13373)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$3.57
PnL
+$0.02
Record
52%
7590-6879 (14469)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.