Guayaquil: Gonzalo Bueno vs Carlos Maria Zarate
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Gonzalo Bueno (60%) · Gonzalo Bueno at 60¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Gonzalo Bueno
5
Gonzalo Bueno 60%
$1.2K
$72.84
75.6¢ → 59.5¢
-21% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralGonzalo Bueno at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH thestingsnake | Gonzalo Buenoavg 75.5¢ | $580.2 | $667.26 | +$87.06 | 60% 4006-2695 (6701) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Gonzalo Buenoavg 76.4¢ | $449.03 | $444.01 | -$5.02 | 54% 17010-14258 (31268) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Gonzalo Buenoavg 66.6¢ | $23.3 | $26.42 | +$3.12 | 55% 6996-5613 (12609) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100 | Carlos Maria Zarateavg 21.1¢ | $26.18 | $16.17 | -$10.01 | 52% 13670-12491 (26161) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Carlos Maria Zarateavg 28.2¢ | $4.28 | $1.97 | -$2.31 | 49% 18854-19262 (38116) |
Invested
$580.2
Value
$667.26
PnL
+$87.06
Record
60%
4006-2695 (6701)
Invested
$449.03
Value
$444.01
PnL
-$5.02
Record
54%
17010-14258 (31268)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$23.3
Value
$26.42
PnL
+$3.12
Record
55%
6996-5613 (12609)
Invested
$26.18
Value
$16.17
PnL
-$10.01
Record
52%
13670-12491 (26161)
Invested
$4.28
Value
$1.97
PnL
-$2.31
Record
49%
18854-19262 (38116)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.