Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Gonzalo Bueno, while the market favors Alex Barrena (80%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Guayaquil: Gonzalo Bueno vs Alex Barrena
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Gonzalo Bueno (57%) · Gonzalo Bueno at 21¢ · $607 held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Gonzalo Bueno
7
Gonzalo Bueno 57%
$606.51
$8.78
31.3¢ → 20.5¢
-34% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidGonzalo Bueno at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Alex Barrena 80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH thestingsnakeCTR | Gonzalo Buenoavg 25¢ | $227.01 | $195.44 | -$31.57 | 60% 3930-2656 (6586) |
 VeryLucky888 | Alex Barrenaavg 55.3¢ | $180.24 | $137.9 | +$35.66 | 58% 40486-29261 (69747) |
LI LilybaeumCTR | Gonzalo Buenoavg 42.1¢ | $108.03 | $112.9 | +$4.87 | 62% 13587-8427 (22014) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Gonzalo Buenoavg 44¢ | $92.4 | $92.4 | -$0 | 58% 27891-20538 (48429) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Alex Barrenaavg 56¢ | $33.57 | $33.57 | +$0 | 56% 6853-5493 (12346) |
1L 1lovejumpCTR<$100 | Gonzalo Buenoavg 37¢ | $98.37 | $22.52 | +$2.15 | 53% 601-530 (1131) |
EF efntrick<$100 | Alex Barrenaavg 79¢ | $17.4 | $11.78 | -$2.32 | 48% 3634-3892 (7526) |
Invested
$227.01
Value
$195.44
PnL
-$31.57
Record
60%
3930-2656 (6586)
VeryLucky888Invested
$180.24
Value
$137.9
PnL
+$35.66
Record
58%
40486-29261 (69747)
Invested
$108.03
Value
$112.9
PnL
+$4.87
Record
62%
13587-8427 (22014)
Invested
$92.4
Value
$92.4
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
27891-20538 (48429)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$33.57
Value
$33.57
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
6853-5493 (12346)
Invested
$98.37
Value
$22.52
PnL
+$2.15
Record
53%
601-530 (1131)
Invested
$17.4
Value
$11.78
PnL
-$2.32
Record
48%
3634-3892 (7526)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.