Sioux Falls: Jenson Brooksby vs Dylan Dietrich

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Dylan Dietrich (86%) · Dylan Dietrich at 93¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 4

Jenson Brooksby8¢Dylan Dietrich92¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dylan Dietrich

Consensus Traders

Dylan Dietrich 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.9K

Combined PnL

$315.41

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 92.5¢

+70% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralDylan Dietrich at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dylan Dietrich

12 of 14 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jenson Brooksby8%

Dylan Dietrich93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jenson Brooksby2 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares19,495

Combined PnL-$933.07

Dylan Dietrich12 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares15,812

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Jenson Brooksby — 14%Dylan Dietrich — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmstCTR	Jenson Brooksbyavg 40.3¢	$7.8K	$6.9K	-$929.73	48% 100-109 (209)
HO HomeRunHazard	Dylan Dietrichavg 67.8¢	$3.6K	$4.9K	+$1.3K	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
UP UpTheBlues	Dylan Dietrichavg 57.4¢	$4.6K	$4.1K	-$444.77	59% 44789-31177 (75966)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Dylan Dietrichavg 48.5¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$330.23	52% 13597-12434 (26031)
└ Dylan Dietrich leg	Dylan Dietrichavg 48.5¢	$970	$1.4K	+$440
└ Jenson Brooksby leg	Jenson Brooksbyavg 36.1¢	$600.31	$490.54	-$109.77
RN1	Dylan Dietrichavg 37¢	$799	$993.35	+$194.35	54% 55844-47942 (103786)
tradecraft	Dylan Dietrichavg 42¢	$848.8	$838.3	-$10.5	52% 5899-5543 (11442)
GH ghostorder	Dylan Dietrichavg 37¢	$314.5	$391	+$76.5	62% 4288-2646 (6934)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041	Dylan Dietrichavg 37¢	$250	$311.04	+$61.04	58% 199-145 (344)
1L 1lovejump	Dylan Dietrichavg 69.8¢	$212.3	$251.3	+$42.6	53% 641-564 (1205)
BI BillBenter2026	Dylan Dietrichavg 64.5¢	$123.2	$127.02	+$3.82	58% 18441-13525 (31966)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Dylan Dietrichavg 61.2¢	$76.05	$99.28	+$26.54	60% 3982-2681 (6663)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Jenson Brooksbyavg 58¢	$48.43	$45.09	-$3.34	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Dylan Dietrichavg 42¢	$23.71	$25.97	+$2.26	49% 18690-19120 (37810)
VeryLucky888<$100	Dylan Dietrichavg 43.8¢	$96.92	$20.18	+$4.7	58% 40917-29601 (70518)
0xheavy888<$100	Dylan Dietrichavg 46¢	$3.72	$3.6	-$0.12	56% 6932-5550 (12482)

robustmstCTR

Jenson Brooksby

Invested

$7,820.82

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$929.73

Record

48%

100-109 (209)

HomeRunHazard

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$3,573.93

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

UpTheBlues

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$4,570.64

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$444.77

Record

59%

44789-31177 (75966)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$1,570.31

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$330.23

Record

52%

13597-12434 (26031)

Both legs:

Dylan Dietrich$97048.5¢+$440

Jenson Brooksby$600.3136.1¢-$109.77

RN1

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$799

Value

$993.35

PnL

+$194.35

Record

54%

55844-47942 (103786)

tradecraft

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$848.8

Value

$838.3

PnL

-$10.5

Record

52%

5899-5543 (11442)

ghostorder

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$314.5

Value

$391

PnL

+$76.5

Record

62%

4288-2646 (6934)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$250

Value

$311.04

PnL

+$61.04

Record

58%

199-145 (344)

1lovejump

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$212.3

Value

$251.3

PnL

+$42.6

Record

53%

641-564 (1205)

BillBenter2026

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$123.2

Value

$127.02

PnL

+$3.82

Record

58%

18441-13525 (31966)

thestingsnake<$100

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$76.05

Value

$99.28

PnL

+$26.54

Record

60%

3982-2681 (6663)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Jenson Brooksby

Invested

$48.43

Value

$45.09

PnL

-$3.34

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$23.71

Value

$25.97

PnL

+$2.26

Record

49%

18690-19120 (37810)

VeryLucky888<$100

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$96.92

Value

$20.18

PnL

+$4.7

Record

58%

40917-29601 (70518)

0xheavy888<$100

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$3.72

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$0.12

Record

56%

6932-5550 (12482)

Research grade

NeutralDylan Dietrich at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Dylan Dietrich

12 of 14 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dylan Dietrich wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.