Lima: Tristan Boyer vs Ryo Tabata
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Tristan Boyer (60%) · Tristan Boyer at 84¢ · $51 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Tristan Boyer
5
Tristan Boyer 60%
$51.34
$0.48
Research grade
NeutralTristan Boyer at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Tristan Boyer. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Tristan Boyeravg 82.3¢ | $18.55 | $18.72 | +$0.17 | 51% 455-429 (884) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Ryo Tabataavg 16¢ | $9.6 | $10.2 | +$0.6 | 48% 668-712 (1380) |
GL glennyorkshire<$100 | Tristan Boyeravg 84¢ | $10 | $9.76 | -$0.24 | 50% 47-47 (94) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Ryo Tabataavg 17¢ | $8.57 | $8.57 | +$0 | 57% 4030-3048 (7078) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Tristan Boyeravg 83¢ | $4.15 | $4.1 | -$0.05 | 32% 291-617 (908) |
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$18.55
Value
$18.72
PnL
+$0.17
Record
51%
455-429 (884)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$10.2
PnL
+$0.6
Record
48%
668-712 (1380)
Invested
$10
Value
$9.76
PnL
-$0.24
Record
50%
47-47 (94)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$8.57
Value
$8.57
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
4030-3048 (7078)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$4.1
PnL
-$0.05
Record
32%
291-617 (908)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.