Game Spread: Casper Ruud (-2.5) vs Nuno Borges (+2.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Nuno Borges (60%) · Nuno Borges at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Casper Ruud<1¢Nuno Borges>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nuno Borges

Consensus Traders

Nuno Borges 60%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$10.74

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 100¢

+108% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNuno Borges at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuno Borges

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Casper Ruud0%

Nuno Borges100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuno Borges3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,413

Combined PnL+$68.26

Casper Ruud2 traders

Total Value$175

Total Shares350

Combined PnL-$79

Nuno Borges — 60%Casper Ruud — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Nuno Borgesavg 48¢	$960	$1,000	+$40	58% 40752-29469 (70221)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Nuno Borgesavg 48¢	$630.34	$656.6	+$26.26	50% 3890-3813 (7703)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Casper Ruudavg 80¢	$200	$125	-$75	59% 30088-20807 (50895)
NO Notradecopy<$100	Nuno Borgesavg 48¢	$48	$50	+$2	49% 3892-4090 (7982)
poshposhCTR<$100	Casper Ruudavg 54¢	$54	$50	-$4	60% 9362-6344 (15706)

VeryLucky888

Nuno Borges

Invested

$960

Value

$1,000

PnL

+$40

Record

58%

40752-29469 (70221)

GamblingAddict12345

Nuno Borges

Invested

$630.34

Value

$656.6

PnL

+$26.26

Record

50%

3890-3813 (7703)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Casper Ruud

Invested

$200

Value

$125

PnL

-$75

Record

59%

30088-20807 (50895)

Notradecopy<$100

Nuno Borges

Invested

$48

Value

$50

PnL

+$2

Record

49%

3892-4090 (7982)

poshposhCTR<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$54

Value

$50

PnL

-$4

Record

60%

9362-6344 (15706)

Research grade

NeutralNuno Borges at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Nuno Borges

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuno Borges wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.