Swiss Indoors Basel: Nuno Borges vs Casper Ruud

17 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Casper Ruud (77%) · Casper Ruud at 87¢ · $30K held · ends Nov 4

Nuno Borges14¢Casper Ruud86¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Casper Ruud

Consensus Traders

Casper Ruud 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.5K

Combined PnL

-$837.43

Smart Money Entry

76.5¢ → 86.5¢

+13% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

Research candidateCasper Ruud at 87%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Casper Ruud

17 of 22 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nuno Borges14%

Casper Ruud87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Casper Ruud17 traders

Total Value$22.4K

Total Shares28,532

Combined PnL-$846.01

Nuno Borges5 traders

Total Value$429.08

Total Shares1,260

Combined PnL+$8.58

Casper Ruud — 77%Nuno Borges — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Casper Ruud. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCasper Ruud 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedCasper Ruud 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Casper Ruud 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Casper Ruudavg 82¢	$10.4K	$10.7K	+$338.52	54% 16864-14141 (31005)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Nuno Borgesavg 28.3¢	$9.1K	$6.7K	$-2.4K	59% 44606-31003 (75609)
└ Casper Ruud leg	Casper Ruudavg 76.6¢	$3.6K	$4.1K	+$467.41
└ Nuno Borges leg	Nuno Borgesavg 28.3¢	$5.5K	$2.6K	$-2.9K
TE tennischamp	Casper Ruudavg 82¢	$4.7K	$3.6K	$-1.1K	68% 240-114 (354)
VeryLucky888	Casper Ruudavg 63.1¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	+$1.28	58% 40752-29469 (70221)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Casper Ruudavg 66¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$85.5	51% 1277-1211 (2488)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Casper Ruudavg 87¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$78.87	52% 13552-12399 (25951)
1L 1lovejump	Casper Ruudavg 69.6¢	$1.3K	$804.28	+$38.39	53% 622-545 (1167)
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192	Casper Ruudavg 64¢	$650	$639.84	-$10.16	64% 113-63 (176)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Casper Ruudavg 64¢	$640	$630	-$10	53% 328-293 (621)
TH thestingsnake	Casper Ruudavg 65.9¢	$430.81	$523.58	+$128.78	60% 3963-2663 (6626)
PA Paul973973	Casper Ruudavg 84.6¢	$600	$446.8	-$153.2	89% 883-110 (993)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Nuno Borgesavg 36.1¢	$357.5	$366.02	+$8.52	62% 13612-8453 (22065)
GH ghostorder	Casper Ruudavg 71¢	$223.59	$198.4	-$25.19	62% 4261-2631 (6892)
SC SchruteBucks	Casper Ruudavg 67.2¢	$1.7K	$26.73	+$101.76	56% 1809-1410 (3219)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Nuno Borgesavg 34¢	$23.79	$25.89	+$1.75	58% 28121-20725 (48846)
EF efntrick<$100	Casper Ruudavg 65¢	$26.55	$24.45	+$4.35	48% 3652-3914 (7566)
tradecraft<$100	Casper Ruudavg 73¢	$21.9	$18.9	-$3	52% 5872-5504 (11376)
RN1CTR<$100	Nuno Borgesavg 36¢	$18	$18.5	+$0.5	54% 55711-47797 (103508)
TRCMCTR<$100	Nuno Borgesavg 15¢	$17.65	$15.88	-$1.76	55% 3914-3141 (7055)
0X 0x1111111111<$100	Casper Ruudavg 69¢	$6.9	$6.3	-$0.6	61% 1719-1081 (2800)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Casper Ruudavg 75¢	$3.75	$3.15	-$0.6	58% 18397-13498 (31895)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Casper Ruudavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.13	-$0.13	47% 2041-2345 (4386)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Nuno Borgesavg 9.8¢	$3.21	$2.78	-$0.43	53% 3047-2709 (5756)

HomeRunHazard

Casper Ruud

Invested

$10,359.05

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$338.52

Record

54%

16864-14141 (31005)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Nuno Borges

Invested

$9,139.84

Value

$6.7K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

59%

44606-31003 (75609)

Both legs:

Casper Ruud$3,601.3376.6¢+$467.41

Nuno Borges$5,538.5128.3¢$-2.9K

tennischamp

Casper Ruud

Invested

$4,712.2

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

68%

240-114 (354)

VeryLucky888

Casper Ruud

Invested

$1,973.35

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.28

Record

58%

40752-29469 (70221)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Casper Ruud

Invested

$1,881

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$85.5

Record

51%

1277-1211 (2488)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Casper Ruud

Invested

$1,114.01

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$78.87

Record

52%

13552-12399 (25951)

1lovejump

Casper Ruud

Invested

$1,271.42

Value

$804.28

PnL

+$38.39

Record

53%

622-545 (1167)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192

Casper Ruud

Invested

$650

Value

$639.84

PnL

-$10.16

Record

64%

113-63 (176)

oxe78sh4w98

Casper Ruud

Invested

$640

Value

$630

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

328-293 (621)

thestingsnake

Casper Ruud

Invested

$430.81

Value

$523.58

PnL

+$128.78

Record

60%

3963-2663 (6626)

Paul973973

Casper Ruud

Invested

$600

Value

$446.8

PnL

-$153.2

Record

89%

883-110 (993)

LilybaeumCTR

Nuno Borges

Invested

$357.5

Value

$366.02

PnL

+$8.52

Record

62%

13612-8453 (22065)

ghostorder

Casper Ruud

Invested

$223.59

Value

$198.4

PnL

-$25.19

Record

62%

4261-2631 (6892)

SchruteBucks

Casper Ruud

Invested

$1,706.43

Value

$26.73

PnL

+$101.76

Record

56%

1809-1410 (3219)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Nuno Borges

Invested

$23.79

Value

$25.89

PnL

+$1.75

Record

58%

28121-20725 (48846)

efntrick<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$26.55

Value

$24.45

PnL

+$4.35

Record

48%

3652-3914 (7566)

tradecraft<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$21.9

Value

$18.9

PnL

-$3

Record

52%

5872-5504 (11376)

RN1CTR<$100

Nuno Borges

Invested

$18

Value

$18.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

54%

55711-47797 (103508)

TRCMCTR<$100

Nuno Borges

Invested

$17.65

Value

$15.88

PnL

-$1.76

Record

55%

3914-3141 (7055)

0x1111111111<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$6.9

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$0.6

Record

61%

1719-1081 (2800)

BillBenter2026<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$0.6

Record

58%

18397-13498 (31895)

ameisgoat11<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.13

PnL

-$0.13

Record

47%

2041-2345 (4386)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Nuno Borges

Invested

$3.21

Value

$2.78

PnL

-$0.43

Record

53%

3047-2709 (5756)

Research grade

Research candidateCasper Ruud at 87%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Casper Ruud

17 of 22 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Casper Ruud. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCasper Ruud 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedCasper Ruud 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Casper Ruud 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Casper Ruud wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.