Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Nuno Borges vs Alex Molcan
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Nuno Borges (83%) · Nuno Borges at 60¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8
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Research candidate
Nuno Borges
6
Nuno Borges 83%
$4.2K
-$8.8
59¢ → 59.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNuno Borges at 60%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Nuno Borges. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
K5 k56 | Nuno Borgesavg 59¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$0 | 57% 887-657 (1544) |
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192 | Nuno Borgesavg 59¢ | $1,000 | $1.0K | -$8.47 | 61% 129-81 (210) |
OX oxe78sh4w98 | Nuno Borgesavg 59¢ | $1.6K | $959.01 | -$8.2 | 53% 454-406 (860) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Nuno Borgesavg 58¢ | $102.09 | $103.9 | +$1.81 | 65% 1754-960 (2714) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Alex Molcanavg 41¢ | $86.1 | $86.1 | +$0 | 57% 29226-21613 (50839) |
 VeryLucky888 | Nuno Borgesavg 57.4¢ | $216.62 | $14.11 | +$6.06 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
Invested
$2,000
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
887-657 (1544)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$8.47
Record
61%
129-81 (210)
Invested
$1,639.34
Value
$959.01
PnL
-$8.2
Record
53%
454-406 (860)
Invested
$102.09
Value
$103.9
PnL
+$1.81
Record
65%
1754-960 (2714)
Invested
$86.1
Value
$86.1
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
29226-21613 (50839)
VeryLucky888Invested
$216.62
Value
$14.11
PnL
+$6.06
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.