Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Adrian Mannarino (67%) · Adrian Mannarino at 68¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 7

Nuno Borges33¢Adrian Mannarino67¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Adrian Mannarino

Consensus Traders

Adrian Mannarino 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.9K

Combined PnL

$266.18

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 67.5¢

+36% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralAdrian Mannarino at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Adrian Mannarino

10 of 15 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nuno Borges33%

Adrian Mannarino68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuno Borges5 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares18,359

Combined PnL-$155.3

Adrian Mannarino10 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares17,682

Combined PnL+$421.48

Nuno Borges — 33%Adrian Mannarino — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Nuno Borgesavg 51¢	$8.0K	$6.8K	$-1.2K	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
└ Nuno Borges leg	Nuno Borgesavg 51¢	$5.0K	$3.8K	$-1.2K
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 61¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$24.52
LU LuzzzerCTR	Nuno Borgesavg 39.5¢	$6.5K	$6.3K	-$165.55	46% 117-136 (253)
OM omnibus-076daa	Adrian Mannarinoavg 54¢	$4.4K	$5.3K	+$897.01	49% 19161-19553 (38714)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 61.4¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$56.94	52% 13785-12588 (26373)
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 61.4¢	$2.7K	$3.1K	+$438.67
└ Nuno Borges leg	Nuno Borgesavg 41.4¢	$1.2K	$841.48	-$381.74
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Adrian Mannarinoavg 48¢	$4.2K	$3.7K	-$483.59	38% 499-807 (1306)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 70.4¢	$918.87	$754.74	-$150.46	60% 4069-2739 (6808)
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 70.4¢	$462.76	$470.17	+$3.15
└ Nuno Borges leg	Nuno Borgesavg 43.9¢	$438.18	$284.57	-$153.61
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3	Adrian Mannarinoavg 41¢	$585.71	$600	+$14.29	45% 399-496 (895)
RE RebornAthenaCTR	Nuno Borgesavg 59¢	$600	$594.92	-$5.08	53% 2011-1812 (3823)
tradecraftCTR	Nuno Borgesavg 51¢	$224.74	$240.27	+$15.53	51% 6007-5697 (11704)
poshposh	Adrian Mannarinoavg 50¢	$150	$136.5	-$13.5	59% 10176-7169 (17345)
VeryLucky888CTR	Nuno Borgesavg 57¢	$126.59	$128.81	+$2.22	58% 41916-30432 (72348)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Nuno Borgesavg 36¢	$86.87	$84.46	-$2.41	48% 922-993 (1915)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 41¢	$74.26	$76.07	+$1.81	62% 13707-8571 (22278)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 39¢	$64.93	$69.92	+$4.99	48% 872-961 (1833)
HRTrading<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 73¢	$41.61	$41.32	-$0.29	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 42¢	$27.3	$27.3	+$0	50% 3870-3825 (7695)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 66.5¢	$14.55	$14.35	+$0.8	85% 5317-914 (6231)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 68¢	$6.8	$6.75	-$0.05	51% 1446-1390 (2836)

RN1ARB<$100

Nuno Borges

Invested

$7,993.52

Value

$6.8K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

Both legs:

Nuno Borges$5,002.0851¢$-1.2K

Adrian Mannarino$2,991.4461¢+$24.52

LuzzzerCTR

Nuno Borges

Invested

$6,499.73

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$165.55

Record

46%

117-136 (253)

omnibus-076daa

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$4,396.43

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$897.01

Record

49%

19161-19553 (38714)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$3,882.66

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$56.94

Record

52%

13785-12588 (26373)

Both legs:

Adrian Mannarino$2,659.4561.4¢+$438.67

Nuno Borges$1,223.2241.4¢-$381.74

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$4,206.65

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$483.59

Record

38%

499-807 (1306)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$918.87

Value

$754.74

PnL

-$150.46

Record

60%

4069-2739 (6808)

Both legs:

Adrian Mannarino$462.7670.4¢+$3.15

Nuno Borges$438.1843.9¢-$153.61

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$585.71

Value

$600

PnL

+$14.29

Record

45%

399-496 (895)

RebornAthenaCTR

Nuno Borges

Invested

$600

Value

$594.92

PnL

-$5.08

Record

53%

2011-1812 (3823)

tradecraftCTR

Nuno Borges

Invested

$224.74

Value

$240.27

PnL

+$15.53

Record

51%

6007-5697 (11704)

poshposh

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$150

Value

$136.5

PnL

-$13.5

Record

59%

10176-7169 (17345)

VeryLucky888CTR

Nuno Borges

Invested

$126.59

Value

$128.81

PnL

+$2.22

Record

58%

41916-30432 (72348)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Nuno Borges

Invested

$86.87

Value

$84.46

PnL

-$2.41

Record

48%

922-993 (1915)

Lilybaeum<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$74.26

Value

$76.07

PnL

+$1.81

Record

62%

13707-8571 (22278)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$64.93

Value

$69.92

PnL

+$4.99

Record

48%

872-961 (1833)

HRTrading<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$41.61

Value

$41.32

PnL

-$0.29

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

NatoAlfista<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$27.3

Value

$27.3

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3870-3825 (7695)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$14.55

Value

$14.35

PnL

+$0.8

Record

85%

5317-914 (6231)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$6.8

Value

$6.75

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

1446-1390 (2836)

Research grade

NeutralAdrian Mannarino at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Adrian Mannarino

10 of 15 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Adrian Mannarino wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.