BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Leo Borg vs Toby Samuel

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Toby Samuel (29%) · Toby Samuel at 90¢ · $600 held · ends Nov 16

Leo Borg11¢Toby Samuel89¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Toby Samuel

Consensus Traders

Toby Samuel 29%

Total Value

$599.88

Combined PnL

$20.05

Smart Money Entry

89.7¢ → 89.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralToby Samuel at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Toby Samuel

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Leo Borg11%

Toby Samuel90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Toby Samuel2 traders

Total Value$372.12

Total Shares416

Combined PnL-$0.92

Leo Borg5 traders

Total Value$227.76

Total Shares2,138

Combined PnL+$20.97

Toby Samuel — 29%Leo Borg — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Toby Samuel. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Toby Samuel) and the top 1000 (5 on Leo Borg) disagree here.

whaleToby Samuel 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrLeo Borg 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedToby Samuel 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Leo Borg 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Toby Samuelavg 89.9¢	$302.17	$300.85	-$1.32	56% 9039-7126 (16165)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Leo Borgavg 9¢	$59.06	$72.18	+$3.28	46% 5712-6614 (12326)
SE sentrio<$100	Toby Samuelavg 89¢	$70.88	$71.28	+$0.4	51% 28849-28206 (57055)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Leo Borgavg 9.6¢	$90.76	$61.6	+$8.27	58% 53839-38316 (92155)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Leo Borgavg 9¢	$40.05	$46.73	+$6.68	47% 3608-4017 (7625)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Leo Borgavg 10¢	$40	$42	+$2	51% 2351-2288 (4639)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Leo Borgavg 9¢	$4.5	$5.25	+$0.75	53% 6834-5983 (12817)

0xheavy888

Toby Samuel

Invested

$302.17

Value

$300.85

PnL

-$1.32

Record

56%

9039-7126 (16165)

hi774cCTR<$100

Leo Borg

Invested

$59.06

Value

$72.18

PnL

+$3.28

Record

46%

5712-6614 (12326)

sentrio<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$70.88

Value

$71.28

PnL

+$0.4

Record

51%

28849-28206 (57055)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Leo Borg

Invested

$90.76

Value

$61.6

PnL

+$8.27

Record

58%

53839-38316 (92155)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Leo Borg

Invested

$40.05

Value

$46.73

PnL

+$6.68

Record

47%

3608-4017 (7625)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Leo Borg

Invested

$40

Value

$42

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

2351-2288 (4639)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Leo Borg

Invested

$4.5

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

53%

6834-5983 (12817)

Research grade

NeutralToby Samuel at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Toby Samuel

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Toby Samuel. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Toby Samuel) and the top 1000 (5 on Leo Borg) disagree here.

whaleToby Samuel 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrLeo Borg 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedToby Samuel 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Leo Borg 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Toby Samuel wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.