Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yannick Hanfmann, while the market favors Benjamin Bonzi (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Yannick Hanfmann
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yannick Hanfmann (60%) · Yannick Hanfmann at 45¢ · $671 held
⚖️
Neutral
Yannick Hanfmann
5
Yannick Hanfmann 60%
$671.26
-$55.38
49.4¢ → 44.5¢
-10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYannick Hanfmann at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Benjamin Bonzi 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Yannick Hanfmannavg 49.8¢ | $551.15 | $492.79 | -$58.36 | 73% 6739-2446 (9185) |
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3<$100 | Benjamin Bonziavg 55¢ | $82.85 | $83.6 | +$0.75 | 45% 400-496 (896) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Benjamin Bonziavg 49¢ | $52.43 | $55.11 | +$2.68 | 59% 46230-32531 (78761) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yannick Hanfmannavg 45¢ | $21.31 | $21.07 | -$0.24 | 50% 19294-19658 (38952) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yannick Hanfmannavg 45¢ | $18.9 | $18.69 | -$0.21 | 58% 28900-21323 (50223) |
Invested
$551.15
Value
$492.79
PnL
-$58.36
Record
73%
6739-2446 (9185)
Invested
$82.85
Value
$83.6
PnL
+$0.75
Record
45%
400-496 (896)
Invested
$52.43
Value
$55.11
PnL
+$2.68
Record
59%
46230-32531 (78761)
Invested
$21.31
Value
$21.07
PnL
-$0.24
Record
50%
19294-19658 (38952)
Invested
$18.9
Value
$18.69
PnL
-$0.21
Record
58%
28900-21323 (50223)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.