Brest: Matisse Bobichon vs Otto Virtanen
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Otto Virtanen (60%) · Otto Virtanen at 83¢ · $790 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Otto Virtanen
5
Otto Virtanen 60%
$789.8
-$1.7
84¢ → 83¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOtto Virtanen at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Otto Virtanenavg 84¢ | $598.7 | $470.9 | -$10.1 | 58% 40752-29469 (70221) |
 0xheavy888 | Otto Virtanenavg 84.1¢ | $184.37 | $179.85 | -$4.52 | 56% 6910-5525 (12435) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Matisse Bobichonavg 16¢ | $99.16 | $111.55 | +$12.39 | 49% 18595-19019 (37614) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Matisse Bobichonavg 16¢ | $18.56 | $19.14 | +$0.58 | 59% 44606-31003 (75609) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Otto Virtanenavg 84¢ | $8.4 | $8.35 | -$0.05 | 47% 2041-2345 (4386) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$598.7
Value
$470.9
PnL
-$10.1
Record
58%
40752-29469 (70221)
0xheavy888Invested
$184.37
Value
$179.85
PnL
-$4.52
Record
56%
6910-5525 (12435)
Invested
$99.16
Value
$111.55
PnL
+$12.39
Record
49%
18595-19019 (37614)
Invested
$18.56
Value
$19.14
PnL
+$0.58
Record
59%
44606-31003 (75609)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$8.35
PnL
-$0.05
Record
47%
2041-2345 (4386)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.