Brest: Matisse Bobichon vs Michael Geerts

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Matisse Bobichon (71%) · Matisse Bobichon at 100¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 3

Matisse Bobichon>99¢Michael Geerts<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Matisse Bobichon

Consensus Traders

Matisse Bobichon 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.6K

Combined PnL

$3.0K

Smart Money Entry

74.8¢ → 99.5¢

+33% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralMatisse Bobichon at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Matisse Bobichon

10 of 14 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Matisse Bobichon100%

Michael Geerts1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Matisse Bobichon10 traders

Total Value$16.9K

Total Shares20,317

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Michael Geerts4 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares19,629

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Matisse Bobichon — 71%Michael Geerts — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Matisse Bobichon. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Michael Geerts) and the top 1000 (11 on Matisse Bobichon) disagree here.

whaleMatisse Bobichon 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpMatisse Bobichon 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrMatisse Bobichon 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedMichael Geerts 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Matisse Bobichon 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Matisse Bobichonavg 99¢	$10.0K	$9.8K	-$151.5	95% 22775-1145 (23920)
RN1CTR	Michael Geertsavg 25.3¢	$3.7K	$6.9K	+$3.2K	54% 55313-47351 (102664)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Matisse Bobichonavg 46.5¢	$3.0K	$3.5K	+$428.89	37% 467-783 (1250)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Michael Geertsavg 35.9¢	$1.8K	$2.3K	+$430.47	48% 3608-3864 (7472)
└ Michael Geerts leg	Michael Geertsavg 35.9¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$312.77
└ Matisse Bobichon leg	Matisse Bobichonavg 46.4¢	$828.22	$945.92	+$117.7
UP UpTheBlues	Matisse Bobichonavg 55.1¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$334.74	59% 44243-30611 (74854)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Michael Geertsavg 41.5¢	$3.2K	$2.0K	$-1.2K	54% 16734-14039 (30773)
TH thestingsnake	Matisse Bobichonavg 66.3¢	$959.88	$1.3K	+$426.91	60% 3891-2643 (6534)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Michael Geertsavg 44.1¢	$1.1K	$438.6	-$636.63	52% 13471-12326 (25797)
└ Matisse Bobichon leg	Matisse Bobichonavg 89.5¢	$239.23	$239.35	+$0.12
└ Michael Geerts leg	Michael Geertsavg 44.1¢	$836	$199.25	-$636.74
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Michael Geertsavg 72.6¢	$109.56	$88.81	-$20.75	58% 18294-13443 (31737)
└ Michael Geerts leg	Michael Geertsavg 72.6¢	$73.34	$47.47	-$12.23
└ Matisse Bobichon leg	Matisse Bobichonavg 63.9¢	$49.86	$41.34	-$8.52
TRCMCTR	Michael Geertsavg 65¢	$67.85	$40.48	-$27.38	55% 3892-3122 (7014)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Matisse Bobichonavg 44¢	$32.34	$38.96	+$6.62	50% 3672-3646 (7318)
tradecraft<$100	Matisse Bobichonavg 58.3¢	$26.25	$37.57	+$11.32	52% 5811-5434 (11245)
HRTrading<$100	Matisse Bobichonavg 70.2¢	$13.68	$16.28	+$2.6	54% 2554-2186 (4740)
PL pleasent242CTR<$100	Michael Geertsavg 54¢	$10.87	$6.25	+$0.38	52% 659-600 (1259)
PA pauleta23<$100	Matisse Bobichonavg 99¢	$4.84	$4.82	-$0.02	67% 23021-11420 (34441)
0X 0x1111111111<$100	Matisse Bobichonavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.65	+$0.5	62% 1699-1057 (2756)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Matisse Bobichonavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.6	+$0.03	58% 27868-20503 (48371)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$9,999

Value

$9.8K

PnL

-$151.5

Record

95%

22775-1145 (23920)

RN1CTR

Michael Geerts

Invested

$3,732.95

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

54%

55313-47351 (102664)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$3,042.92

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$428.89

Record

37%

467-783 (1250)

efntrickARB<$100

Michael Geerts

Invested

$1,835.47

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$430.47

Record

48%

3608-3864 (7472)

Both legs:

Michael Geerts$1,007.2535.9¢+$312.77

Matisse Bobichon$828.2246.4¢+$117.7

UpTheBlues

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$1,823.81

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$334.74

Record

59%

44243-30611 (74854)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Michael Geerts

Invested

$3,151.98

Value

$2.0K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

54%

16734-14039 (30773)

thestingsnake

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$959.88

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$426.91

Record

60%

3891-2643 (6534)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Michael Geerts

Invested

$1,075.23

Value

$438.6

PnL

-$636.63

Record

52%

13471-12326 (25797)

Both legs:

Matisse Bobichon$239.2389.5¢+$0.12

Michael Geerts$83644.1¢-$636.74

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Michael Geerts

Invested

$109.56

Value

$88.81

PnL

-$20.75

Record

58%

18294-13443 (31737)

Both legs:

Michael Geerts$73.3472.6¢-$12.23

Matisse Bobichon$49.8663.9¢-$8.52

TRCMCTR

Michael Geerts

Invested

$67.85

Value

$40.48

PnL

-$27.38

Record

55%

3892-3122 (7014)

NatoAlfista<$100

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$32.34

Value

$38.96

PnL

+$6.62

Record

50%

3672-3646 (7318)

tradecraft<$100

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$26.25

Value

$37.57

PnL

+$11.32

Record

52%

5811-5434 (11245)

HRTrading<$100

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$13.68

Value

$16.28

PnL

+$2.6

Record

54%

2554-2186 (4740)

pleasent242CTR<$100

Michael Geerts

Invested

$10.87

Value

$6.25

PnL

+$0.38

Record

52%

659-600 (1259)

pauleta23<$100

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$4.84

Value

$4.82

PnL

-$0.02

Record

67%

23021-11420 (34441)

0x1111111111<$100

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$0.5

Record

62%

1699-1057 (2756)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

27868-20503 (48371)

Research grade

NeutralMatisse Bobichon at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Matisse Bobichon

10 of 14 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Matisse Bobichon. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Michael Geerts) and the top 1000 (11 on Matisse Bobichon) disagree here.

whaleMatisse Bobichon 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpMatisse Bobichon 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrMatisse Bobichon 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedMichael Geerts 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Matisse Bobichon 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Matisse Bobichon wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.