Ningbo: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Fajing Sun

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Fajing Sun (75%) · Fajing Sun at 80¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 5

Petr Bar Biryukov21¢Fajing Sun79¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Fajing Sun

Consensus Traders

Fajing Sun 75%

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

-$190.82

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 79.5¢

+28% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralFajing Sun at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fajing Sun

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Petr Bar Biryukov21%

Fajing Sun80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Fajing Sun9 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares8,433

Combined PnL-$192.02

Petr Bar Biryukov3 traders

Total Value$9.98

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$1.21

Fajing Sun — 75%Petr Bar Biryukov — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Fajing Sunavg 65.6¢	$5.4K	$4.8K	-$609.97	59% 45019-31414 (76433)
TH thestingsnake	Fajing Sunavg 50¢	$871.82	$1.1K	+$443.81	60% 3989-2681 (6670)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Fajing Sunavg 49.8¢	$458.1	$473.6	+$15.5	53% 3120-2757 (5877)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Fajing Sunavg 82¢	$283.23	$284.8	+$1.57	52% 13624-12458 (26082)
PA pauleta23	Fajing Sunavg 74.9¢	$251.87	$257.6	+$5.73	67% 23184-11579 (34763)
VeryLucky888	Fajing Sunavg 64¢	$849.92	$213.5	-$59.35	58% 41146-29827 (70973)
BI BillBenter2026	Fajing Sunavg 53.2¢	$123.97	$138.6	+$14.63	58% 18470-13554 (32024)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Fajing Sunavg 52¢	$24.05	$22.43	-$1.62	50% 3745-3727 (7472)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Fajing Sunavg 64¢	$9.6	$7.27	-$2.33	47% 2142-2436 (4578)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Petr Bar Biryukovavg 37¢	$3.7	$5.15	+$1.45	51% 5917-5582 (11499)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Petr Bar Biryukovavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.48	-$0.13	59% 30175-20910 (51085)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Petr Bar Biryukovavg 52¢	$2.47	$2.35	-$0.12	52% 3585-3263 (6848)

UpTheBlues

Fajing Sun

Invested

$5,372.65

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$609.97

Record

59%

45019-31414 (76433)

thestingsnake

Fajing Sun

Invested

$871.82

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$443.81

Record

60%

3989-2681 (6670)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Fajing Sun

Invested

$458.1

Value

$473.6

PnL

+$15.5

Record

53%

3120-2757 (5877)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Fajing Sun

Invested

$283.23

Value

$284.8

PnL

+$1.57

Record

52%

13624-12458 (26082)

pauleta23

Fajing Sun

Invested

$251.87

Value

$257.6

PnL

+$5.73

Record

67%

23184-11579 (34763)

VeryLucky888

Fajing Sun

Invested

$849.92

Value

$213.5

PnL

-$59.35

Record

58%

41146-29827 (70973)

BillBenter2026

Fajing Sun

Invested

$123.97

Value

$138.6

PnL

+$14.63

Record

58%

18470-13554 (32024)

NatoAlfista<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$24.05

Value

$22.43

PnL

-$1.62

Record

50%

3745-3727 (7472)

ameisgoat11<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$9.6

Value

$7.27

PnL

-$2.33

Record

47%

2142-2436 (4578)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Petr Bar Biryukov

Invested

$3.7

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$1.45

Record

51%

5917-5582 (11499)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Petr Bar Biryukov

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.13

Record

59%

30175-20910 (51085)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Petr Bar Biryukov

Invested

$2.47

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.12

Record

52%

3585-3263 (6848)

Research grade

NeutralFajing Sun at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Fajing Sun

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fajing Sun wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.