Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Petr Bar Biryukov, while the market favors Yaroslav Demin (60%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Ningbo: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Yaroslav Demin

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Petr Bar Biryukov (45%) · Petr Bar Biryukov at 41¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 8

Petr Bar Biryukov41¢Yaroslav Demin59¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Petr Bar Biryukov

Consensus Traders

Petr Bar Biryukov 45%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.8K

Combined PnL

-$258.47

Smart Money Entry

47.4¢ → 40.5¢

-15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralPetr Bar Biryukov at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Petr Bar Biryukov

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Yaroslav Demin 60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Petr Bar Biryukov41%

Yaroslav Demin60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Petr Bar Biryukov5 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares31,060

Combined PnL-$565.51

Yaroslav Demin6 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares5,680

Combined PnL+$307.05

Petr Bar Biryukov — 45%Yaroslav Demin — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuzzzerCTR	Petr Bar Biryukovavg 44.9¢	$8.5K	$8.2K	-$266.17	46% 120-140 (260)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Petr Bar Biryukovavg 52.9¢	$5.6K	$5.4K	-$253.49	48% 1050-1155 (2205)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Yaroslav Deminavg 49.8¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$8.57	52% 13915-12687 (26602)
└ Yaroslav Demin leg	Yaroslav Deminavg 49.8¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$253.46
└ Petr Bar Biryukov leg	Petr Bar Biryukovavg 50.2¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$244.89
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Petr Bar Biryukovavg 54.8¢	$3.1K	$2.8K	-$276.86	59% 46770-33051 (79821)
└ Yaroslav Demin leg	Yaroslav Deminavg 50.7¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$208.41
└ Petr Bar Biryukov leg	Petr Bar Biryukovavg 54.8¢	$1.9K	$1.4K	-$485.27
VeryLucky888	Yaroslav Deminavg 59.5¢	$1.8K	$2.3K	+$1.73	58% 42597-30998 (73595)
0X 0x63792b1833fB76595e65Dd0b91CBd8dea8a8c035-1791439997825	Yaroslav Deminavg 39.4¢	$789.87	$923.44	+$274.5	48% 96-106 (202)
TH thestingsnake	Yaroslav Deminavg 56.2¢	$708.24	$567.3	+$43.64	60% 4092-2758 (6850)
88MCTR	Petr Bar Biryukovavg 40¢	$400	$390	-$25	42% 791-1085 (1876)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Petr Bar Biryukovavg 31.4¢	$102.47	$160.02	+$6.93	50% 19412-19792 (39204)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Yaroslav Deminavg 48¢	$91.58	$124.81	+$33.23	48% 8863-9449 (18312)
└ Petr Bar Biryukov leg	Petr Bar Biryukovavg 28.9¢	$43.58	$73.81	+$30.23
└ Yaroslav Demin leg	Yaroslav Deminavg 48¢	$48	$51	+$3
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Petr Bar Biryukovavg 64¢	$118.56	$90.77	-$27.79	50% 3937-3921 (7858)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Yaroslav Deminavg 62¢	$6.2	$7.3	+$1.1	86% 5846-989 (6835)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yaroslav Deminavg 60¢	$3	$3.65	+$0.65	52% 7473-6774 (14247)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Yaroslav Deminavg 48.7¢	$87.06	$2.55	-$14.57	56% 1861-1449 (3310)

LuzzzerCTR

Petr Bar Biryukov

Invested

$8,500

Value

$8.2K

PnL

-$266.17

Record

46%

120-140 (260)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Petr Bar Biryukov

Invested

$5,616.64

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$253.49

Record

48%

1050-1155 (2205)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$2,877.43

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$8.57

Record

52%

13915-12687 (26602)

Both legs:

Yaroslav Demin$1,460.4549.8¢+$253.46

Petr Bar Biryukov$1,416.9850.2¢-$244.89

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Petr Bar Biryukov

Invested

$3,066.07

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$276.86

Record

59%

46770-33051 (79821)

Both legs:

Yaroslav Demin$1,201.9350.7¢+$208.41

Petr Bar Biryukov$1,864.1454.8¢-$485.27

VeryLucky888

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$1,844.58

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.73

Record

58%

42597-30998 (73595)

0x63792b1833fB76595e65Dd0b91CBd8dea8a8c035-1791439997825

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$789.87

Value

$923.44

PnL

+$274.5

Record

48%

96-106 (202)

thestingsnake

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$708.24

Value

$567.3

PnL

+$43.64

Record

60%

4092-2758 (6850)

88MCTR

Petr Bar Biryukov

Invested

$400

Value

$390

PnL

-$25

Record

42%

791-1085 (1876)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Petr Bar Biryukov

Invested

$102.47

Value

$160.02

PnL

+$6.93

Record

50%

19412-19792 (39204)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$91.58

Value

$124.81

PnL

+$33.23

Record

48%

8863-9449 (18312)

Both legs:

Petr Bar Biryukov$43.5828.9¢+$30.23

Yaroslav Demin$4848¢+$3

NatoAlfistaCTR

Petr Bar Biryukov

Invested

$118.56

Value

$90.77

PnL

-$27.79

Record

50%

3937-3921 (7858)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$6.2

Value

$7.3

PnL

+$1.1

Record

86%

5846-989 (6835)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

Value

$3.65

PnL

+$0.65

Record

52%

7473-6774 (14247)

SchruteBucks<$100

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$87.06

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$14.57

Record

56%

1861-1449 (3310)

Research grade

NeutralPetr Bar Biryukov at 41%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Petr Bar Biryukov

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Yaroslav Demin 60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Petr Bar Biryukov wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.