Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Liam Broady — but Petr Bar Biryukov won instead.
Ningbo: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Liam Broady
Resolved Petr Bar Biryukov. 39% of the top Polymarket traders held Liam Broady. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
23
Liam Broady 45%
1 arb excluded
$11.2K
$-6.5K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 23 top traders (39%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LA landighertz | Petr Bar Biryukovavg 99.9¢ | $8.5K | $8.5K | +$8.48 | 99% 1143-4 (1147) |
MR MrBentlyCTR | Liam Broadyavg 57.3¢ | $8.5K | — | $-8.5K | 53% 543-483 (1026) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Petr Bar Biryukovavg 38.1¢ | $709.59 | $1.1K | +$344.06 | 52% 13782-12582 (26364) |
 88M | Petr Bar Biryukovavg 30¢ | $300 | $1,000 | +$325 | 42% 780-1079 (1859) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR | Liam Broadyavg 57.4¢ | $1.8K | — | $-1.1K | 60% 4065-2738 (6803) |
GA GamblingOdyssey | Petr Bar Biryukovavg 34¢ | $58.61 | $172.37 | +$91.36 | 51% 861-818 (1679) |
TO topdogbigboi | Petr Bar Biryukovavg 33.1¢ | $50.13 | $142.6 | +$92.47 | 49% 7958-8291 (16249) |
FL flatbarrel | Petr Bar Biryukovavg 34¢ | $2.3K | $76.4 | +$50.42 | 58% 2750-1972 (4722) |
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100 | Liam Broadyavg 56.8¢ | $181.72 | $65.73 | -$115.99 | 58% 18650-13710 (32360) |
| └ Petr Bar Biryukov leg | Petr Bar Biryukovavg 88.9¢ | $58.42 | $65.73 | +$7.31 | |
| └ Liam Broady leg | Liam Broadyavg 56.8¢ | $123.3 | — | -$123.3 | |
SC SchruteBucks | Petr Bar Biryukovavg 34¢ | $850 | $82.6 | -$60.05 | 56% 1844-1439 (3283) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Liam Broadyavg 65¢ | $263.89 | — | -$263.89 | 58% 41902-30424 (72326) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Liam Broadyavg 56¢ | $542.98 | — | -$304.07 | 48% 920-988 (1908) |
AN AnonymousUsername<$100 | Petr Bar Biryukovavg 33¢ | $12.21 | $36.99 | +$24.78 | 74% 6672-2394 (9066) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Petr Bar Biryukovavg 84.2¢ | $78.92 | $28.42 | -$17.5 | 51% 6003-5696 (11699) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Petr Bar Biryukovavg 61.2¢ | $7.85 | $11 | +$3.15 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100 | Petr Bar Biryukovavg 41¢ | $4.1 | $10 | +$5.9 | 51% 1445-1388 (2833) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Liam Broadyavg 58¢ | $21.17 | — | -$21.17 | 50% 3869-3825 (7694) |
 TRCMCTR | Liam Broadyavg 70¢ | $695.71 | — | -$487 | 55% 3948-3180 (7128) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Liam Broadyavg 68¢ | $6.8 | — | -$6.8 | 85% 5310-912 (6222) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Liam Broadyavg 65¢ | $3.25 | — | -$3.25 | 48% 2389-2622 (5011) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Liam Broadyavg 71¢ | $28.4 | — | -$28.4 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
 isco22 | Petr Bar Biryukovavg 43¢ | $2.6K | $0 | +$3.4K | 63% 128-75 (203) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Petr Bar Biryukovavg 42¢ | — | — | +$0 | 49% 19156-19549 (38705) |
LI Lilybaeum<$100 | Petr Bar Biryukovavg 29¢ | — | — | +$0 | 62% 13706-8571 (22277) |
Invested
$8,471.86
Value
$8.5K
PnL
+$8.48
Record
99%
1143-4 (1147)
Invested
$8,527.86
Value
—
PnL
$-8.5K
Record
53%
543-483 (1026)
Invested
$709.59
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$344.06
Record
52%
13782-12582 (26364)
88MInvested
$300
Value
$1,000
PnL
+$325
Record
42%
780-1079 (1859)
Invested
$1,826.53
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
60%
4065-2738 (6803)
Invested
$58.61
Value
$172.37
PnL
+$91.36
Record
51%
861-818 (1679)
Invested
$50.13
Value
$142.6
PnL
+$92.47
Record
49%
7958-8291 (16249)
Invested
$2,312.9
Value
$76.4
PnL
+$50.42
Record
58%
2750-1972 (4722)
Invested
$181.72
Value
$65.73
PnL
-$115.99
Record
58%
18650-13710 (32360)
Both legs:
Invested
$850
Value
$82.6
PnL
-$60.05
Record
56%
1844-1439 (3283)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$263.89
Value
—
PnL
-$263.89
Record
58%
41902-30424 (72326)
Invested
$542.98
Value
—
PnL
-$304.07
Record
48%
920-988 (1908)
Invested
$12.21
Value
$36.99
PnL
+$24.78
Record
74%
6672-2394 (9066)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$78.92
Value
$28.42
PnL
-$17.5
Record
51%
6003-5696 (11699)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.85
Value
$11
PnL
+$3.15
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
Invested
$4.1
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.9
Record
51%
1445-1388 (2833)
Invested
$21.17
Value
—
PnL
-$21.17
Record
50%
3869-3825 (7694)
TRCMCTRInvested
$695.71
Value
—
PnL
-$487
Record
55%
3948-3180 (7128)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$6.8
Value
—
PnL
-$6.8
Record
85%
5310-912 (6222)
Invested
$3.25
Value
—
PnL
-$3.25
Record
48%
2389-2622 (5011)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$28.4
Value
—
PnL
-$28.4
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
isco22Invested
$2,584
Value
$0
PnL
+$3.4K
Record
63%
128-75 (203)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
19156-19549 (38705)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
13706-8571 (22277)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
landighertz
Petr Bar Biryukov — $8.5K
MrBently
CTRLiam Broady — $0
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Petr Bar Biryukov — $1.1K
88M
Petr Bar Biryukov — $1,000
thestingsnake
CTRLiam Broady — $0
GamblingOdyssey
Petr Bar Biryukov — $172.37
topdogbigboi
Petr Bar Biryukov — $142.6
flatbarrel
Petr Bar Biryukov — $76.4
BillBenter2026
ARBArbitrage — excluded
SchruteBucks
Petr Bar Biryukov — $82.6