Erste Bank Open: Matteo Berrettini vs Alex de Minaur

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Alex de Minaur (11%) · Alex de Minaur at 69¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 6

Matteo Berrettini32¢Alex de Minaur68¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alex de Minaur

Consensus Traders

Alex de Minaur 11%

Total Value

$20.2K

Combined PnL

-$156.67

Research grade

NeutralAlex de Minaur at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alex de Minaur

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Matteo Berrettini32%

Alex de Minaur69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alex de Minaur1 trader

Total Value$15.1K

Total Shares22,000

Combined PnL-$269.51

Matteo Berrettini8 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares16,145

Combined PnL+$112.84

Alex de Minaur — 11%Matteo Berrettini — 89%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KK kkookkoo	Alex de Minauravg 69.7¢	$15.3K	$15.1K	-$269.51	51% 595-575 (1170)
VeryLucky888CTR	Matteo Berrettiniavg 31¢	$3.5K	$3.2K	+$61.05	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Matteo Berrettiniavg 30.4¢	$957.43	$992.25	+$34.82	62% 13684-8539 (22223)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Matteo Berrettiniavg 31¢	$309.69	$314.68	+$4.99	59% 4044-2854 (6898)
38 38791873984189CTR	Matteo Berrettiniavg 30.6¢	$250.9	$258.51	+$7.6	46% 7988-9443 (17431)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Matteo Berrettiniavg 31¢	$185.71	$189	+$3.29	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Matteo Berrettiniavg 32¢	$118.4	$116.55	-$1.85	51% 1402-1349 (2751)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Matteo Berrettiniavg 30¢	$30	$31.5	+$1.5	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Matteo Berrettiniavg 29¢	$11.87	$13.3	+$1.43	52% 4714-4426 (9140)

kkookkoo

Alex de Minaur

Invested

$15,339.51

Value

$15.1K

PnL

-$269.51

Record

51%

595-575 (1170)

VeryLucky888CTR

Matteo Berrettini

Invested

$3,463.62

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$61.05

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

LilybaeumCTR

Matteo Berrettini

Invested

$957.43

Value

$992.25

PnL

+$34.82

Record

62%

13684-8539 (22223)

Bagwell306CTR

Matteo Berrettini

Invested

$309.69

Value

$314.68

PnL

+$4.99

Record

59%

4044-2854 (6898)

38791873984189CTR

Matteo Berrettini

Invested

$250.9

Value

$258.51

PnL

+$7.6

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Matteo Berrettini

Invested

$185.71

Value

$189

PnL

+$3.29

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Matteo Berrettini

Invested

$118.4

Value

$116.55

PnL

-$1.85

Record

51%

1402-1349 (2751)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Matteo Berrettini

Invested

$30

Value

$31.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

hi774cCTR<$100

Matteo Berrettini

Invested

$11.87

Value

$13.3

PnL

+$1.43

Record

52%

4714-4426 (9140)

Research grade

NeutralAlex de Minaur at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alex de Minaur

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alex de Minaur wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.