Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Ugo Humbert

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Ugo Humbert (67%) · Ugo Humbert at 53¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 11

Matteo Berrettini48¢Ugo Humbert52¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ugo Humbert

Consensus Traders

Ugo Humbert 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

-$68.29

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 52.5¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUgo Humbert at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ugo Humbert

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Matteo Berrettini48%

Ugo Humbert53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ugo Humbert6 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares8,115

Combined PnL-$82.57

Matteo Berrettini3 traders

Total Value$234.51

Total Shares494

Combined PnL+$14.28

Ugo Humbert — 67%Matteo Berrettini — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Ugo Humbert. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Matteo Berrettini) and the top 1000 (8 on Ugo Humbert) disagree here.

whaleUgo Humbert 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUgo Humbert 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrUgo Humbert 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedMatteo Berrettini 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Ugo Humbert 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Ugo Humbertavg 54.2¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$85.94	67% 3649-1815 (5464)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Ugo Humbertavg 52¢	$766.39	$1.2K	+$18.81	47% 1322-1513 (2835)
└ Ugo Humbert leg	Ugo Humbertavg 52¢	$848.1	$856.26	+$15.97
└ Matteo Berrettini leg	Matteo Berrettiniavg 47.1¢	$324.4	$327.25	+$2.85
0X 0x0dae0fd966005cd3eb2e8e9b901f24fca34a72fe	Ugo Humbertavg 54.2¢	$301.36	$294.44	-$6.92	51% 217-209 (426)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be	Ugo Humbertavg 53.2¢	$200.93	$199.99	-$0.94	49% 368-386 (754)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR	Matteo Berrettiniavg 50¢	$198.66	$186.79	-$5.96	45% 414-502 (916)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Ugo Humbertavg 50¢	$172.61	$179.21	+$6.6	61% 13990-9022 (23012)
└ Ugo Humbert leg	Ugo Humbertavg 50¢	$110.06	$116.66	+$6.6
└ Matteo Berrettini leg	Matteo Berrettiniavg 47¢	$62.55	$62.55	+$0
38 38791873984189	Ugo Humbertavg 50.5¢	$212.52	$116.77	+$10.25	48% 57267-60865 (118132)
VeryLucky888CTR	Matteo Berrettiniavg 47¢	$807.08	$46.88	+$20.26	58% 44906-32675 (77581)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Ugo Humbertavg 52.2¢	$26.12	$26.5	+$0.38	50% 20420-20739 (41159)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Ugo Humbertavg 50¢	$10	$10.6	+$0.6	74% 2402-842 (3244)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Matteo Berrettiniavg 48¢	$0.86	$0.84	-$0.02	52% 8547-7785 (16332)

JAMJAMJAM4

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$3,742.94

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$85.94

Record

67%

3649-1815 (5464)

GC-PARB<$100

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$766.39

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$18.81

Record

47%

1322-1513 (2835)

Both legs:

Ugo Humbert$848.152¢+$15.97

Matteo Berrettini$324.447.1¢+$2.85

0x0dae0fd966005cd3eb2e8e9b901f24fca34a72fe

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$301.36

Value

$294.44

PnL

-$6.92

Record

51%

217-209 (426)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$200.93

Value

$199.99

PnL

-$0.94

Record

49%

368-386 (754)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR

Matteo Berrettini

Invested

$198.66

Value

$186.79

PnL

-$5.96

Record

45%

414-502 (916)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$172.61

Value

$179.21

PnL

+$6.6

Record

61%

13990-9022 (23012)

Both legs:

Ugo Humbert$110.0650¢+$6.6

Matteo Berrettini$62.5547¢+$0

38791873984189

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$212.52

Value

$116.77

PnL

+$10.25

Record

48%

57267-60865 (118132)

VeryLucky888CTR

Matteo Berrettini

Invested

$807.08

Value

$46.88

PnL

+$20.26

Record

58%

44906-32675 (77581)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$26.12

Value

$26.5

PnL

+$0.38

Record

50%

20420-20739 (41159)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$10

Value

$10.6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

74%

2402-842 (3244)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Matteo Berrettini

Invested

$0.86

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

8547-7785 (16332)

Research grade

NeutralUgo Humbert at 53%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Ugo Humbert

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Ugo Humbert. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Matteo Berrettini) and the top 1000 (8 on Ugo Humbert) disagree here.

whaleUgo Humbert 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUgo Humbert 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrUgo Humbert 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedMatteo Berrettini 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Ugo Humbert 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ugo Humbert wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.