Bratislava 2: Marko Bekeni vs Matthew William Donald
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Matthew William Donald (50%) · Matthew William Donald at 100¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Matthew William Donald
6
Matthew William Donald 50%
$13.1K
$268.99
92.5¢ → 99.7¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralMatthew William Donald at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Matthew William Donaldavg 94.2¢ | $9.5K | $10.0K | +$544.24 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
UP UpTheBlues | Matthew William Donaldavg 86.7¢ | $2.6K | $3.0K | +$378.67 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Marko Bekeniavg 5.8¢ | $704.99 | $42.84 | -$662.15 | 50% 19451-19817 (39268) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Matthew William Donaldavg 95.9¢ | $40.48 | $39.9 | -$0.58 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Marko Bekeniavg 5¢ | $4.21 | $13.4 | +$9.19 | 72% 6831-2625 (9456) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100 | Marko Bekeniavg 2.9¢ | $0.44 | $0.05 | -$0.39 | 52% 13930-12706 (26636) |
RN1Invested
$9,464.99
Value
$10.0K
PnL
+$544.24
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
Invested
$2,600.84
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$378.67
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$704.99
Value
$42.84
PnL
-$662.15
Record
50%
19451-19817 (39268)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$40.48
Value
$39.9
PnL
-$0.58
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
Invested
$4.21
Value
$13.4
PnL
+$9.19
Record
72%
6831-2625 (9456)
Invested
$0.44
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.39
Record
52%
13930-12706 (26636)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.