Orleans: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Kyrian Jacquet
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Nishesh Basavareddy (56%) · Nishesh Basavareddy at 54¢ · $823 held · ends Nov 19
⚖️
Neutral
Nishesh Basavareddy
9
Nishesh Basavareddy 56%
$823.02
-$6.27
53.6¢ → 53.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNishesh Basavareddy at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Nishesh Basavareddyavg 53¢ | $569.2 | $495.8 | +$3.1 | 52% 773-714 (1487) |
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR | Kyrian Jacquetavg 50¢ | $106.38 | $98.56 | -$7.83 | 2% 7-321 (328) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Nishesh Basavareddyavg 57¢ | $84.9 | $78.95 | -$5.96 | 54% 278-237 (515) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Kyrian Jacquetavg 43¢ | $66.19 | $71.3 | +$5.11 | 32% 538-1128 (1666) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Kyrian Jacquetavg 46.3¢ | $45.4 | $45.4 | +$0 | 52% 352-329 (681) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Nishesh Basavareddyavg 54¢ | $19.37 | $19.01 | -$0.36 | 49% 1077-1133 (2210) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Nishesh Basavareddyavg 56¢ | $5.6 | $5.3 | -$0.3 | 38% 492-810 (1302) |
HY hydra1248<$100 | Nishesh Basavareddyavg 55¢ | $4.81 | $4.68 | -$0.13 | 78% 125-35 (160) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Kyrian Jacquetavg 45¢ | $3.94 | $4.02 | +$0.09 | 59% 3535-2417 (5952) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$569.2
Value
$495.8
PnL
+$3.1
Record
52%
773-714 (1487)
Invested
$106.38
Value
$98.56
PnL
-$7.83
Record
2%
7-321 (328)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$84.9
Value
$78.95
PnL
-$5.96
Record
54%
278-237 (515)
Invested
$66.19
Value
$71.3
PnL
+$5.11
Record
32%
538-1128 (1666)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$45.4
Value
$45.4
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
352-329 (681)
Invested
$19.37
Value
$19.01
PnL
-$0.36
Record
49%
1077-1133 (2210)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$5.3
PnL
-$0.3
Record
38%
492-810 (1302)
Invested
$4.81
Value
$4.68
PnL
-$0.13
Record
78%
125-35 (160)
Invested
$3.94
Value
$4.02
PnL
+$0.09
Record
59%
3535-2417 (5952)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
VeryLucky888
Nishesh Basavareddy — $495.8
0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be
CTRKyrian Jacquet — $98.56
0xheavy888
Nishesh Basavareddy — $78.95
Venusian
CTRKyrian Jacquet — $71.3
nigiri99
CTRKyrian Jacquet — $45.4
Pan9X
Nishesh Basavareddy — $19.01
ameisgoat11
Nishesh Basavareddy — $5.3
hydra1248
Nishesh Basavareddy — $4.68
NM-P
CTRKyrian Jacquet — $4.02