Guayaquil: Tomas Barrios vs Juan Estevez

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Tomas Barrios (50%) · Tomas Barrios at 83¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 2

Tomas Barrios83¢Juan Estevez17¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tomas Barrios

Consensus Traders

Tomas Barrios 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$606.66

Smart Money Entry

89.1¢ → 82.5¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralTomas Barrios at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tomas Barrios

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Tomas Barrios83%

Juan Estevez18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tomas Barrios4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,601

Combined PnL+$10.01

Juan Estevez4 traders

Total Value$322.61

Total Shares4,950

Combined PnL-$616.68

Tomas Barrios — 50%Juan Estevez — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft	Tomas Barriosavg 91¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$50.35	52% 5837-5457 (11294)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Tomas Barriosavg 84.3¢	$634.63	$685.01	+$50.37	52% 13520-12365 (25885)
└ Tomas Barrios leg	Tomas Barriosavg 84.3¢	$405.8	$425.96	+$20.16
└ Juan Estevez leg	Juan Estevezavg 10.2¢	$228.83	$259.04	+$30.21
HO HomeRunHazard	Tomas Barriosavg 82¢	$407.11	$472.17	+$65.07	54% 16758-14063 (30821)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Juan Estevezavg 19¢	$937.89	$320.86	-$617.03	49% 18462-18884 (37346)
1L 1lovejump	Tomas Barriosavg 86.8¢	$258.6	$109.67	-$4.93	53% 601-530 (1131)
EF efntrick<$100	Tomas Barriosavg 82¢	$12.3	$12.52	+$0.22	48% 3634-3892 (7526)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Juan Estevezavg 9¢	$1.08	$1.38	+$0.3	54% 2678-2303 (4981)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Juan Estevezavg 13¢	$0.15	$0.2	+$0.05	50% 11998-12149 (24147)
RN1CTR<$100	Juan Estevezavg 17¢	$0.17	$0.18	+$0	54% 55411-47463 (102874)

tradecraft

Tomas Barrios

Invested

$1,821.4

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$50.35

Record

52%

5837-5457 (11294)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Tomas Barrios

Invested

$634.63

Value

$685.01

PnL

+$50.37

Record

52%

13520-12365 (25885)

Both legs:

Tomas Barrios$405.884.3¢+$20.16

Juan Estevez$228.8310.2¢+$30.21

HomeRunHazard

Tomas Barrios

Invested

$407.11

Value

$472.17

PnL

+$65.07

Record

54%

16758-14063 (30821)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Juan Estevez

Invested

$937.89

Value

$320.86

PnL

-$617.03

Record

49%

18462-18884 (37346)

1lovejump

Tomas Barrios

Invested

$258.6

Value

$109.67

PnL

-$4.93

Record

53%

601-530 (1131)

efntrick<$100

Tomas Barrios

Invested

$12.3

Value

$12.52

PnL

+$0.22

Record

48%

3634-3892 (7526)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Juan Estevez

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.3

Record

54%

2678-2303 (4981)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Juan Estevez

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.2

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

11998-12149 (24147)

RN1CTR<$100

Juan Estevez

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

55411-47463 (102874)

Research grade

NeutralTomas Barrios at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Tomas Barrios

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tomas Barrios wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.