Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Felix Balshaw, while the market favors Yannick Hanfmann (95%). 3 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Felix Balshaw vs Yannick Hanfmann

3 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Felix Balshaw (17%) · Felix Balshaw at 5.5¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 7

Felix Balshaw6¢Yannick Hanfmann94¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Felix Balshaw

Consensus Traders

Felix Balshaw 17%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.0K

Combined PnL

-$862.11

Smart Money Entry

41.3¢ → 5.5¢

-87% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidFelix Balshaw at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Felix Balshaw

3 of 18 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Yannick Hanfmann 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Felix Balshaw6%

Yannick Hanfmann95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Felix Balshaw3 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares20,213

Combined PnL$-3.7K

Yannick Hanfmann15 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares14,314

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Felix Balshaw — 17%Yannick Hanfmann — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Felix Balshawavg 36.6¢	$9.0K	$2.8K	$-3.0K	38% 499-807 (1306)
TH thestingsnake	Yannick Hanfmannavg 51.5¢	$2.0K	$2.7K	+$1.2K	60% 4069-2739 (6808)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Yannick Hanfmannavg 56¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$22.6	51% 1446-1390 (2836)
RN1ARB<$100	Yannick Hanfmannavg 50¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$149.46	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
└ Yannick Hanfmann leg	Yannick Hanfmannavg 50¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$137.01
└ Felix Balshaw leg	Felix Balshawavg 44¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$12.46
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Yannick Hanfmannavg 46.8¢	$1.6K	$2.3K	+$675.68	52% 13785-12588 (26373)
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR	Felix Balshawavg 54.8¢	$2.8K	$2.2K	-$691.99	51% 113-108 (221)
MR MrDouche	Yannick Hanfmannavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.6K	+$590	82% 1689-363 (2052)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Yannick Hanfmannavg 55.6¢	$417.51	$431.81	+$14.3	48% 922-993 (1915)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Yannick Hanfmannavg 45.1¢	$233.71	$422.37	+$188.66	59% 30472-21186 (51658)
poshposh	Yannick Hanfmannavg 47¢	$139.02	$244.02	+$105	59% 10176-7169 (17345)
BI BillBenter2026	Yannick Hanfmannavg 69.3¢	$124.8	$146.7	+$21.9	58% 18658-13715 (32373)
VeryLucky888	Yannick Hanfmannavg 56¢	$684	$87.75	+$33.75	58% 41916-30432 (72348)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yannick Hanfmannavg 48¢	$48	$58.5	+$10.5	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
HRTrading<$100	Yannick Hanfmannavg 57¢	$30.64	$31.41	+$0.77	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
SE sentrio<$100	Yannick Hanfmannavg 80¢	$13.86	$13.94	+$0.09	50% 24920-24613 (49533)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Yannick Hanfmannavg 53.3¢	$9.9	$10	+$3.1	85% 5317-914 (6231)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	Yannick Hanfmann	$7.76	$7.76	+$2.94	48% 872-961 (1833)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Felix Balshawavg 40¢	$2	$2.07	+$0.07	48% 2393-2622 (5015)
HY hydra1248<$100	Yannick Hanfmannavg 82¢	$1.26	$1.25	-$0.01	— 1-0 (1)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Felix Balshaw

Invested

$8,989

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

38%

499-807 (1306)

thestingsnake

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$1,956.44

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

60%

4069-2739 (6808)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$2,531.2

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$22.6

Record

51%

1446-1390 (2836)

RN1ARB<$100

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$2,341.54

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$149.46

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

Both legs:

Yannick Hanfmann$1,245.550¢+$137.01

Felix Balshaw$1,096.0444¢+$12.46

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$1,648.77

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$675.68

Record

52%

13785-12588 (26373)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR

Felix Balshaw

Invested

$2,849.95

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$691.99

Record

51%

113-108 (221)

MrDouche

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$1,040

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$590

Record

82%

1689-363 (2052)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$417.51

Value

$431.81

PnL

+$14.3

Record

48%

922-993 (1915)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$233.71

Value

$422.37

PnL

+$188.66

Record

59%

30472-21186 (51658)

poshposh

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$139.02

Value

$244.02

PnL

+$105

Record

59%

10176-7169 (17345)

BillBenter2026

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$124.8

Value

$146.7

PnL

+$21.9

Record

58%

18658-13715 (32373)

VeryLucky888

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$684

Value

$87.75

PnL

+$33.75

Record

58%

41916-30432 (72348)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$48

Value

$58.5

PnL

+$10.5

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

HRTrading<$100

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$30.64

Value

$31.41

PnL

+$0.77

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

sentrio<$100

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$13.86

Value

$13.94

PnL

+$0.09

Record

50%

24920-24613 (49533)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$9.9

Value

$10

PnL

+$3.1

Record

85%

5317-914 (6231)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$7.76

Value

$7.76

PnL

+$2.94

Record

48%

872-961 (1833)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Felix Balshaw

Invested

Value

$2.07

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

2393-2622 (5015)

hydra1248<$100

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$1.26

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$0.01

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Research grade

AvoidFelix Balshaw at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Felix Balshaw

3 of 18 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Yannick Hanfmann 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Felix Balshaw wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.8%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1369.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

1469.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.