Brest: Felix Balshaw vs Ugo Blanchet

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Felix Balshaw (89%) · Felix Balshaw at 78¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 3

Felix Balshaw78¢Ugo Blanchet22¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Felix Balshaw

Consensus Traders

Felix Balshaw 89%

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

$208.62

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 77.5¢

+31% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralFelix Balshaw at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Felix Balshaw

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Felix Balshaw78%

Ugo Blanchet23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ugo Blanchet1 trader

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares6,331

Combined PnL-$214.57

Felix Balshaw8 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares5,817

Combined PnL+$423.19

Ugo Blanchet — 11%Felix Balshaw — 89%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
F8 0xf816...0433CTR	Ugo Blanchetavg 47.4¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$214.57	—
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Felix Balshawavg 53¢	$907.4	$1.3K	+$393.35	52% 13478-12328 (25806)
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584	Felix Balshawavg 56.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$10	53% 151-135 (286)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Felix Balshawavg 72.9¢	$583	$588	+$5	51% 1198-1131 (2329)
UP UpTheBlues	Felix Balshawavg 69¢	$547.08	$561.16	+$14.07	59% 44247-30614 (74861)
EF efntrick	Felix Balshawavg 53¢	$308.68	$326.24	+$17.56	48% 3613-3865 (7478)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Felix Balshawavg 67.6¢	$94.7	$84.6	+$3.2	60% 3897-2643 (6540)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Felix Balshawavg 56¢	$54.45	$54.45	+$0	49% 18391-18816 (37207)
0xheavy888<$100	Felix Balshawavg 56¢	$16.61	$16.61	-$0	56% 6840-5478 (12318)

0xf816...0433CTR

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$214.57

Record

—

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Felix Balshaw

Invested

$907.4

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$393.35

Record

52%

13478-12328 (25806)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584

Felix Balshaw

Invested

$1,063.29

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

151-135 (286)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Felix Balshaw

Invested

$583

Value

$588

PnL

+$5

Record

51%

1198-1131 (2329)

UpTheBlues

Felix Balshaw

Invested

$547.08

Value

$561.16

PnL

+$14.07

Record

59%

44247-30614 (74861)

efntrick

Felix Balshaw

Invested

$308.68

Value

$326.24

PnL

+$17.56

Record

48%

3613-3865 (7478)

thestingsnake<$100

Felix Balshaw

Invested

$94.7

Value

$84.6

PnL

+$3.2

Record

60%

3897-2643 (6540)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Felix Balshaw

Invested

$54.45

Value

$54.45

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

18391-18816 (37207)

0xheavy888<$100

Felix Balshaw

Invested

$16.61

Value

$16.61

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

6840-5478 (12318)

Research grade

NeutralFelix Balshaw at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Felix Balshaw

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Felix Balshaw wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.