Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Tomas Machac
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Tomas Machac (75%) · Tomas Machac at 82¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Tomas Machac
4
Tomas Machac 75%
$10.6K
-$260.3
83.7¢ → 82¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralTomas Machac at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
K5 k56 | Tomas Machacavg 83.7¢ | $10.1K | $9.8K | -$323.68 | 57% 887-657 (1544) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Sebastian Baezavg 16¢ | $637.16 | $716.81 | +$59.73 | 49% 12972-13528 (26500) |
 VeryLucky888 | Tomas Machacavg 82¢ | $124.55 | $98.69 | +$3.69 | 58% 42597-30998 (73595) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Tomas Machacavg 82¢ | $4.1 | $4.05 | -$0.05 | 52% 7473-6774 (14247) |
Invested
$10,146.4
Value
$9.8K
PnL
-$323.68
Record
57%
887-657 (1544)
Invested
$637.16
Value
$716.81
PnL
+$59.73
Record
49%
12972-13528 (26500)
VeryLucky888Invested
$124.55
Value
$98.69
PnL
+$3.69
Record
58%
42597-30998 (73595)
Invested
$4.1
Value
$4.05
PnL
-$0.05
Record
52%
7473-6774 (14247)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.