Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Damir Dzumhur
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Damir Dzumhur (80%) · Damir Dzumhur at 63¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 7
🔬
Research candidate
Damir Dzumhur
5
Damir Dzumhur 80%
$13.5K
$109.71
64.9¢ → 63¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Research candidateDamir Dzumhur at 63%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Damir Dzumhur. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL pleasent242 | Damir Dzumhuravg 65¢ | $13.0K | $13.1K | +$99.99 | 52% 662-602 (1264) |
NA NatoAlfista | Damir Dzumhuravg 59.4¢ | $238.05 | $260.39 | +$22.34 | 50% 3869-3825 (7694) |
AS astapzippoCTR<$100 | Sebastian Baezavg 40.5¢ | $81 | $80 | -$12 | 56% 2148-1702 (3850) |
 VeryLucky888 | Damir Dzumhuravg 63.3¢ | $149.07 | $62.01 | -$0.57 | 58% 41902-30424 (72326) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Damir Dzumhuravg 63¢ | $6.3 | $6.25 | -$0.05 | 48% 2389-2622 (5011) |
Invested
$12,999.99
Value
$13.1K
PnL
+$99.99
Record
52%
662-602 (1264)
Invested
$238.05
Value
$260.39
PnL
+$22.34
Record
50%
3869-3825 (7694)
Invested
$81
Value
$80
PnL
-$12
Record
56%
2148-1702 (3850)
VeryLucky888Invested
$149.07
Value
$62.01
PnL
-$0.57
Record
58%
41902-30424 (72326)
Invested
$6.3
Value
$6.25
PnL
-$0.05
Record
48%
2389-2622 (5011)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.