Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Coleman Wong, while the market favors Terence Atmane (53%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Seoul: Terence Atmane vs Coleman Wong

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Coleman Wong (38%) · Coleman Wong at 48¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 8

Terence Atmane53¢Coleman Wong47¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Coleman Wong

Consensus Traders

Coleman Wong 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.5K

Combined PnL

-$8.4

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 47.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralColeman Wong at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Coleman Wong

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Terence Atmane 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Terence Atmane53%

Coleman Wong48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Coleman Wong3 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares15,837

Combined PnL-$37.55

Terence Atmane5 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares5,977

Combined PnL+$29.15

Coleman Wong — 38%Terence Atmane — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Coleman Wong. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTerence Atmane 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Coleman Wong 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR	Coleman Wongavg 49¢	$3.9K	$3.8K	-$39.44	54% 188-161 (349)
RN1CTR	Coleman Wongavg 47¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	-$0	54% 57091-49342 (106433)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Coleman Wongavg 47.4¢	$2.8K	$1.7K	+$29.12	58% 42597-30998 (73595)
└ Coleman Wong leg	Coleman Wongavg 47.4¢	$947.08	$940	+$14.12
└ Terence Atmane leg	Terence Atmaneavg 52¢	$780	$795	+$15
0X 0x6683DC5307A8cc191a05d2741D34182A6B05de6b-1763826378948	Terence Atmaneavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	68% 432-208 (640)
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192	Terence Atmaneavg 53¢	$750	$764.15	+$14.15	61% 128-81 (209)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Terence Atmaneavg 53¢	$722.72	$736.36	+$13.64	53% 450-404 (854)
RR rrooster	Terence Atmaneavg 52.9¢	$606.05	$607.51	+$1.46	63% 1344-794 (2138)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Coleman Wongavg 47.4¢	$180.11	$184.56	+$1.89	57% 29194-21587 (50781)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Terence Atmaneavg 54¢	$10.8	$10.6	-$0.1	51% 1519-1471 (2990)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR

Coleman Wong

Invested

$3,865.12

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$39.44

Record

54%

188-161 (349)

RN1CTR

Coleman Wong

Invested

$3,591.28

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

57091-49342 (106433)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Coleman Wong

Invested

$2,787.94

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$29.12

Record

58%

42597-30998 (73595)

Both legs:

Coleman Wong$947.0847.4¢+$14.12

Terence Atmane$78052¢+$15

0x6683DC5307A8cc191a05d2741D34182A6B05de6b-1763826378948

Terence Atmane

Invested

$1,076.79

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

68%

432-208 (640)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192

Terence Atmane

Invested

$750

Value

$764.15

PnL

+$14.15

Record

61%

128-81 (209)

oxe78sh4w98

Terence Atmane

Invested

$722.72

Value

$736.36

PnL

+$13.64

Record

53%

450-404 (854)

rrooster

Terence Atmane

Invested

$606.05

Value

$607.51

PnL

+$1.46

Record

63%

1344-794 (2138)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Coleman Wong

Invested

$180.11

Value

$184.56

PnL

+$1.89

Record

57%

29194-21587 (50781)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Terence Atmane

Invested

$10.8

Value

$10.6

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

1519-1471 (2990)

Research grade

NeutralColeman Wong at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Coleman Wong

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Terence Atmane 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Coleman Wong. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTerence Atmane 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Coleman Wong 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Coleman Wong wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.