Seoul: Terence Atmane vs Taro Daniel

3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Terence Atmane (100%) · Terence Atmane at 100¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 5

Terence Atmane>99¢Taro Daniel<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Terence Atmane

Consensus Traders

Terence Atmane 100%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

-$23.2

Smart Money Entry

97.4¢ → 100¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralTerence Atmane at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Terence Atmane

3 of 3 top traders (100%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Terence Atmane100%

Taro Daniel0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Terence Atmane3 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,867

Combined PnL-$23.2

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Terence Atmaneavg 88.7¢	$4.6K	$4.3K	-$232.34	54% 16927-14186 (31113)
└ Terence Atmane leg	Terence Atmaneavg 88.7¢	$3.7K	$2.7K	$-1.0K
└ Taro Daniel leg	Taro Danielavg 18.2¢	$828.09	$1.6K	+$809.25
LO looppau	Terence Atmaneavg 99.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$1.25	99% 10611-59 (10670)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Taro Danielavg 22.5¢	$2.5K	$2.0K	-$523.13	59% 44951-31350 (76301)
└ Terence Atmane leg	Terence Atmaneavg 84.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$39.08
└ Taro Daniel leg	Taro Danielavg 22.5¢	$1.3K	$706.2	-$562.21
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Terence Atmaneavg 83.3¢	$594.26	$481.22	-$113.04	52% 13611-12440 (26051)
└ Terence Atmane leg	Terence Atmaneavg 83.3¢	$488.67	$375.64	-$113.04
└ Taro Daniel leg	Taro Danielavg 36¢	$105.58	$105.58	-$0
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Terence Atmaneavg 76.5¢	$978.12	$335.44	+$51.82	53% 644-566 (1210)
└ Terence Atmane leg	Terence Atmaneavg 76.5¢	$239.69	$264.77	+$73.87
└ Taro Daniel leg	Taro Danielavg 20.9¢	$95.52	$70.67	-$22.04
TH thestingsnake	Terence Atmaneavg 78.1¢	$277.01	$227.23	-$17.53	60% 3987-2681 (6668)
poshposh<$100	Terence Atmaneavg 94¢	$56.56	$49.64	-$6.92	59% 9580-6566 (16146)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Terence Atmane

Invested

$4,570.4

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$232.34

Record

54%

16927-14186 (31113)

Both legs:

Terence Atmane$3,742.3188.7¢$-1.0K

Taro Daniel$828.0918.2¢+$809.25

looppau

Terence Atmane

Invested

$2,497.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.25

Record

99%

10611-59 (10670)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Taro Daniel

Invested

$2,478.97

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$523.13

Record

59%

44951-31350 (76301)

Both legs:

Terence Atmane$1,210.5584.8¢+$39.08

Taro Daniel$1,268.4222.5¢-$562.21

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Terence Atmane

Invested

$594.26

Value

$481.22

PnL

-$113.04

Record

52%

13611-12440 (26051)

Both legs:

Terence Atmane$488.6783.3¢-$113.04

Taro Daniel$105.5836¢-$0

1lovejumpARB<$100

Terence Atmane

Invested

$978.12

Value

$335.44

PnL

+$51.82

Record

53%

644-566 (1210)

Both legs:

Terence Atmane$239.6976.5¢+$73.87

Taro Daniel$95.5220.9¢-$22.04

thestingsnake

Terence Atmane

Invested

$277.01

Value

$227.23

PnL

-$17.53

Record

60%

3987-2681 (6668)

poshposh<$100

Terence Atmane

Invested

$56.56

Value

$49.64

PnL

-$6.92

Record

59%

9580-6566 (16146)

Research grade

NeutralTerence Atmane at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Terence Atmane

3 of 3 top traders (100%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Terence Atmane wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.