Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Mariano Navone

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Luca Van Assche (56%) · Luca Van Assche at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 9

Luca Van Assche56¢Mariano Navone44¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Luca Van Assche

Consensus Traders

Luca Van Assche 56%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$34.74

Smart Money Entry

59.7¢ → 56.5¢

-5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralLuca Van Assche at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Luca Van Assche

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Luca Van Assche56%

Mariano Navone44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Luca Van Assche5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,632

Combined PnL-$19.73

Mariano Navone4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,909

Combined PnL+$54.47

Luca Van Assche — 56%Mariano Navone — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Luca Van Assche. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Luca Van Assche) and the top 1000 (6 on Mariano Navone) disagree here.

whaleLuca Van Assche 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLuca Van Assche 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedLuca Van Assche 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Mariano Navone 50% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Luca Van Asscheavg 60¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$15	58% 43237-31478 (74715)
K5 k56CTR	Mariano Navoneavg 40¢	$850	$892.5	+$10.63	57% 890-659 (1549)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Mariano Navoneavg 40¢	$698.46	$742.12	+$43.65	51% 677-643 (1320)
38 38791873984189	Luca Van Asscheavg 57¢	$199.5	$197.75	-$1.75	47% 11778-13375 (25153)
0xheavy888	Luca Van Asscheavg 59.5¢	$114.78	$113.8	-$0.98	55% 7427-5969 (13396)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Luca Van Asscheavg 58.8¢	$46.44	$44.64	-$1.8	65% 1793-980 (2773)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Mariano Navoneavg 42¢	$15.27	$15.45	+$0.18	50% 24964-24673 (49637)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Luca Van Asscheavg 58.5¢	$5.85	$5.65	-$0.2	52% 7597-6891 (14488)
PL pltrkr111CTR<$100	Mariano Navoneavg 43¢	$0.65	$0.65	+$0.01	54% 744-625 (1369)

VeryLucky888

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$1,800

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$15

Record

58%

43237-31478 (74715)

k56CTR

Mariano Navone

Invested

$850

Value

$892.5

PnL

+$10.63

Record

57%

890-659 (1549)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Mariano Navone

Invested

$698.46

Value

$742.12

PnL

+$43.65

Record

51%

677-643 (1320)

38791873984189

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$199.5

Value

$197.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

47%

11778-13375 (25153)

0xheavy888

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$114.78

Value

$113.8

PnL

-$0.98

Record

55%

7427-5969 (13396)

darkumbreon88<$100

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$46.44

Value

$44.64

PnL

-$1.8

Record

65%

1793-980 (2773)

sentrioCTR<$100

Mariano Navone

Invested

$15.27

Value

$15.45

PnL

+$0.18

Record

50%

24964-24673 (49637)

ameisgoat11<$100

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$5.85

Value

$5.65

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

7597-6891 (14488)

pltrkr111CTR<$100

Mariano Navone

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.65

PnL

+$0.01

Record

54%

744-625 (1369)

Research grade

NeutralLuca Van Assche at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Luca Van Assche

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Luca Van Assche. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Luca Van Assche) and the top 1000 (6 on Mariano Navone) disagree here.

whaleLuca Van Assche 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLuca Van Assche 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedLuca Van Assche 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Mariano Navone 50% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Luca Van Assche wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.