Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata

11 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Luca Van Assche (52%) · Luca Van Assche at 61¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 13

Luca Van Assche61¢Rinky Hijikata39¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Luca Van Assche

Consensus Traders

Luca Van Assche 52%

Total Value

$28.1K

Combined PnL

-$21.93

Smart Money Entry

61.6¢ → 60.5¢

-2% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralLuca Van Assche at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Luca Van Assche

11 of 21 top traders (52%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Luca Van Assche61%

Rinky Hijikata40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Luca Van Assche11 traders

Total Value$17.5K

Total Shares28,347

Combined PnL+$42.62

Rinky Hijikata10 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares27,082

Combined PnL-$64.55

Luca Van Assche — 52%Rinky Hijikata — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Luca Van Assche. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Luca Van Assche) and the top 1000 (12 on Rinky Hijikata) disagree here.

whaleLuca Van Assche 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpRinky Hijikata 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrLuca Van Assche 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedLuca Van Assche 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Rinky Hijikata 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Luca Van Asscheavg 61.8¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$14.95	55% 3739-3059 (6798)
DA darkumbreon88	Luca Van Asscheavg 61¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$38.18	64% 2010-1118 (3128)
MR MrBently	Luca Van Asscheavg 61¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$35	52% 602-549 (1151)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Rinky Hijikataavg 39¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$47.66	42% 8022-11209 (19231)
K5 k56	Luca Van Asscheavg 63.2¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$57	57% 899-666 (1565)
LI LimousinCTR	Rinky Hijikataavg 40.2¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$51.03	51% 1635-1545 (3180)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Rinky Hijikataavg 39¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$22.5	50% 4489-4411 (8900)
0xheavy888	Luca Van Asscheavg 61¢	$610	$615	+$5	56% 8099-6423 (14522)
GC GC-PCTR	Rinky Hijikataavg 38¢	$489.05	$488.58	-$0.47	64% 10090-5691 (15781)
NM NM-PCTR	Rinky Hijikataavg 38¢	$471.38	$471.38	-$0	64% 10066-5621 (15687)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Luca Van Asscheavg 61¢	$366	$369	+$3	51% 1984-1914 (3898)
HI hi774cCTR	Rinky Hijikataavg 38¢	$340.12	$353.55	+$13.43	46% 5254-6098 (11352)
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR	Rinky Hijikataavg 41.7¢	$385.38	$350.77	-$34.61	59% 143-99 (242)
VE VenusianCTR	Rinky Hijikataavg 40.2¢	$276.12	$264.51	-$11.61	50% 1594-1623 (3217)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Rinky Hijikataavg 40.7¢	$210.43	$196.65	-$5.01	50% 1582-1596 (3178)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Luca Van Asscheavg 59.2¢	$67.04	$70.19	+$3.96	50% 21344-21627 (42971)
0X 0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684<$100	Luca Van Asscheavg 63.2¢	$55.6	$54.56	-$0.44	38% 525-872 (1397)
PA Pan9X<$100	Luca Van Asscheavg 61¢	$48.73	$41.45	-$0.26	54% 10087-8472 (18559)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Rinky Hijikataavg 38.9¢	$39.61	$39.2	-$0.41	54% 6301-5367 (11668)
PT PT-S7<$100	Luca Van Asscheavg 61¢	$25.62	$25.83	+$0.21	49% 3253-3430 (6683)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Luca Van Asscheavg 61¢	$3.05	$3.08	+$0.03	77% 12724-3887 (16611)

JAMJAMJAM4

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$4,495.09

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$14.95

Record

55%

3739-3059 (6798)

darkumbreon88

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$4,465.71

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$38.18

Record

64%

2010-1118 (3128)

MrBently

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$4,269.99

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$35

Record

52%

602-549 (1151)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$3,717.33

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$47.66

Record

42%

8022-11209 (19231)

k56

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$3,057

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$57

Record

57%

899-666 (1565)

LimousinCTR

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$2,974.46

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$51.03

Record

51%

1635-1545 (3180)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$1,754.61

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$22.5

Record

50%

4489-4411 (8900)

0xheavy888

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$610

Value

$615

PnL

+$5

Record

56%

8099-6423 (14522)

GC-PCTR

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$489.05

Value

$488.58

PnL

-$0.47

Record

64%

10090-5691 (15781)

NM-PCTR

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$471.38

Value

$471.38

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

10066-5621 (15687)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$366

Value

$369

PnL

+$3

Record

51%

1984-1914 (3898)

hi774cCTR

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$340.12

Value

$353.55

PnL

+$13.43

Record

46%

5254-6098 (11352)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$385.38

Value

$350.77

PnL

-$34.61

Record

59%

143-99 (242)

VenusianCTR

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$276.12

Value

$264.51

PnL

-$11.61

Record

50%

1594-1623 (3217)

LightParadoxCTR

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$210.43

Value

$196.65

PnL

-$5.01

Record

50%

1582-1596 (3178)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$67.04

Value

$70.19

PnL

+$3.96

Record

50%

21344-21627 (42971)

0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684<$100

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$55.6

Value

$54.56

PnL

-$0.44

Record

38%

525-872 (1397)

Pan9X<$100

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$48.73

Value

$41.45

PnL

-$0.26

Record

54%

10087-8472 (18559)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Rinky Hijikata

Invested

$39.61

Value

$39.2

PnL

-$0.41

Record

54%

6301-5367 (11668)

PT-S7<$100

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$25.62

Value

$25.83

PnL

+$0.21

Record

49%

3253-3430 (6683)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$0.03

Record

77%

12724-3887 (16611)

Research grade

NeutralLuca Van Assche at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Luca Van Assche

11 of 21 top traders (52%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Luca Van Assche. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Luca Van Assche) and the top 1000 (12 on Rinky Hijikata) disagree here.

whaleLuca Van Assche 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpRinky Hijikata 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrLuca Van Assche 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedLuca Van Assche 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Rinky Hijikata 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Luca Van Assche wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.