Hersonissos 3: Adrian Andreev vs Benjamin Pietri

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Adrian Andreev (38%) · Adrian Andreev at 66¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17

Adrian Andreev66¢Benjamin Pietri34¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Adrian Andreev

Consensus Traders

Adrian Andreev 38%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$4.81

Smart Money Entry

66.8¢ → 65.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAdrian Andreev at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Adrian Andreev

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Adrian Andreev66%

Benjamin Pietri35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Adrian Andreev3 traders

Total Value$854.2

Total Shares1,304

Combined PnL-$16.26

Benjamin Pietri5 traders

Total Value$478.6

Total Shares1,403

Combined PnL+$11.46

Adrian Andreev — 38%Benjamin Pietri — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Adrian Andreev. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Adrian Andreev) and the top 1000 (5 on Benjamin Pietri) disagree here.

ctrBenjamin Pietri 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedAdrian Andreev 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Benjamin Pietri 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Adrian Andreevavg 66.8¢	$744.27	$729.75	-$14.51	69% 34-15 (49)
12xmrboltCTR	Benjamin Pietriavg 34¢	$291.38	$295.66	+$4.28	8% 2-22 (24)
VeryLucky888	Adrian Andreevavg 66.4¢	$122.9	$121.17	-$1.72	52% 119-110 (229)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Benjamin Pietriavg 32¢	$77.41	$81.04	+$3.63	26% 121-344 (465)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Benjamin Pietriavg 32¢	$64.67	$67.7	+$3.03	26% 127-363 (490)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Benjamin Pietriavg 33¢	$20.84	$21.16	+$0.32	33% 108-219 (327)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Benjamin Pietriavg 33¢	$12.85	$13.04	+$0.19	28% 130-331 (461)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Adrian Andreevavg 66¢	$3.3	$3.28	-$0.03	18% 55-248 (303)

0xheavy888

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$744.27

Value

$729.75

PnL

-$14.51

Record

69%

34-15 (49)

12xmrboltCTR

Benjamin Pietri

Invested

$291.38

Value

$295.66

PnL

+$4.28

Record

2-22 (24)

VeryLucky888

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$122.9

Value

$121.17

PnL

-$1.72

Record

52%

119-110 (229)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Benjamin Pietri

Invested

$77.41

Value

$81.04

PnL

+$3.63

Record

26%

121-344 (465)

LimousinCTR<$100

Benjamin Pietri

Invested

$64.67

Value

$67.7

PnL

+$3.03

Record

26%

127-363 (490)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Benjamin Pietri

Invested

$20.84

Value

$21.16

PnL

+$0.32

Record

33%

108-219 (327)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Benjamin Pietri

Invested

$12.85

Value

$13.04

PnL

+$0.19

Record

28%

130-331 (461)

ameisgoat11<$100

Adrian Andreev

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.28

PnL

-$0.03

Record

18%

55-248 (303)

Research grade

NeutralAdrian Andreev at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Adrian Andreev

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Adrian Andreev. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Adrian Andreev) and the top 1000 (5 on Benjamin Pietri) disagree here.

ctrBenjamin Pietri 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedAdrian Andreev 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Benjamin Pietri 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Adrian Andreev wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.