Lima: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Nicolas Jarry

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Nicolas Jarry (46%) · Nicolas Jarry at 74¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 15

Felipe Meligeni Alves27¢Nicolas Jarry73¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nicolas Jarry

Consensus Traders

Nicolas Jarry 46%

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

-$528.04

Smart Money Entry

69.3¢ → 73.5¢

+6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNicolas Jarry at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolas Jarry

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Felipe Meligeni Alves27%

Nicolas Jarry74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nicolas Jarry6 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares11,444

Combined PnL-$265.7

Felipe Meligeni Alves7 traders

Total Value$596.19

Total Shares1,761

Combined PnL-$262.35

Nicolas Jarry — 46%Felipe Meligeni Alves — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Nicolas Jarry. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Felipe Meligeni Alves) and the top 1000 (8 on Nicolas Jarry) disagree here.

whaleFelipe Meligeni Alves 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNicolas Jarry 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFelipe Meligeni Alves 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedFelipe Meligeni Alves 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nicolas Jarry 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Nicolas Jarryavg 75¢	$5.8K	$5.5K	-$266.81	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
NO Notradecopy	Nicolas Jarryavg 49¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$71.43	48% 4168-4500 (8668)
38 38791873984189	Nicolas Jarryavg 73.3¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$127.23	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Felipe Meligeni Alvesavg 50¢	$1.1K	$389.84	-$175.14	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
TH thestingsnake	Nicolas Jarryavg 44.9¢	$136.85	$202.83	+$65.98	60% 4594-3102 (7696)
RN1CTR	Felipe Meligeni Alvesavg 53¢	$153.77	$87.04	-$66.73	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 70.3¢	$72.54	$63.85	-$8.69	53% 15485-13736 (29221)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Felipe Meligeni Alvesavg 47¢	$36.13	$37.75	+$1.62	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Felipe Meligeni Alvesavg 43.7¢	$99.74	$34.41	-$9.2	56% 39453-31101 (70554)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Felipe Meligeni Alvesavg 47¢	$28.2	$20.7	-$7.5	49% 3720-3945 (7665)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Felipe Meligeni Alvesavg 48¢	$14.65	$14.66	+$0.01	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Felipe Meligeni Alvesavg 43¢	$17.2	$11.8	-$5.4	54% 10222-8700 (18922)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 78¢	$3.9	$3.53	-$0.38	57% 20229-15050 (35279)

ferrariChampions2026

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$5,759.82

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$266.81

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

Notradecopy

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$1,255.1

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$71.43

Record

48%

4168-4500 (8668)

38791873984189

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$1,273.09

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$127.23

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Invested

$1,129.96

Value

$389.84

PnL

-$175.14

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

thestingsnake

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$136.85

Value

$202.83

PnL

+$65.98

Record

60%

4594-3102 (7696)

RN1CTR

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Invested

$153.77

Value

$87.04

PnL

-$66.73

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$72.54

Value

$63.85

PnL

-$8.69

Record

53%

15485-13736 (29221)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Invested

$36.13

Value

$37.75

PnL

+$1.62

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Invested

$99.74

Value

$34.41

PnL

-$9.2

Record

56%

39453-31101 (70554)

efntrickCTR<$100

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Invested

$28.2

Value

$20.7

PnL

-$7.5

Record

49%

3720-3945 (7665)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Invested

$14.65

Value

$14.66

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Invested

$17.2

Value

$11.8

PnL

-$5.4

Record

54%

10222-8700 (18922)

BillBenter2026<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.53

PnL

-$0.38

Record

57%

20229-15050 (35279)

Research grade

NeutralNicolas Jarry at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolas Jarry

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Nicolas Jarry. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Felipe Meligeni Alves) and the top 1000 (8 on Nicolas Jarry) disagree here.

whaleFelipe Meligeni Alves 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNicolas Jarry 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFelipe Meligeni Alves 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedFelipe Meligeni Alves 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nicolas Jarry 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nicolas Jarry wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.