Ningbo: Mert Alkaya vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu
11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yu-Hsiou Hsu (65%) · Yu-Hsiou Hsu at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Yu-Hsiou Hsu
17
Yu-Hsiou Hsu 65%
$4.8K
$550.68
76.9¢ → 100¢
+30% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralYu-Hsiou Hsu at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 74.3¢ | $2.7K | $1.7K | +$471.86 | 46% 7844-9262 (17106) |
 poshposh | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 76.5¢ | $424.26 | $542.37 | +$118.11 | 59% 9885-6859 (16744) |
PA Paul973973 | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 98¢ | $400 | $398.98 | -$1.02 | 89% 904-116 (1020) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 68.1¢ | $343.85 | $376.23 | +$32.38 | 59% 30350-21049 (51399) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Mert Alkayaavg 43.8¢ | $353.99 | $360.67 | +$9.73 | 58% 41458-30076 (71534) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 76.9¢ | $406.86 | $305.09 | -$101.77 | 52% 13706-12515 (26221) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 80¢ | $280 | $278.25 | -$1.75 | 51% 1385-1333 (2718) |
EU Eulhunter | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 67.7¢ | $211.01 | $259.41 | +$51.42 | 55% 5707-4745 (10452) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Mert Alkayaavg 8.9¢ | $224.53 | $202.36 | -$22.16 | 48% 727-780 (1507) |
TH thestingsnake | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 82¢ | $448.07 | $185.37 | -$41.77 | 60% 4031-2714 (6745) |
BI BillBenter2026 | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 84.4¢ | $102.92 | $114.07 | +$11.15 | 58% 18567-13628 (32195) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 71.7¢ | $22.2 | $20.35 | -$1.85 | 67% 23253-11658 (34911) |
 TRCMCTR<$100 | Mert Alkayaavg 30.5¢ | $15.25 | $12.75 | -$2.5 | 55% 3934-3171 (7105) |
FA Favorite-Cave-MuscatCTR | Mert Alkayaavg 35.2¢ | $378.38 | $10.2 | +$30.14 | 68% 320-152 (472) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 79¢ | $4.96 | $5.81 | +$0.85 | 86% 5052-846 (5898) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Mert Alkayaavg 48.5¢ | $4.85 | $4.5 | -$0.35 | 51% 5965-5659 (11624) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Mert Alkayaavg 12.5¢ | $2.99 | $1.21 | -$1.78 | 39% 3159-4962 (8121) |
Invested
$2,734.26
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$471.86
Record
46%
7844-9262 (17106)
poshposhInvested
$424.26
Value
$542.37
PnL
+$118.11
Record
59%
9885-6859 (16744)
Invested
$400
Value
$398.98
PnL
-$1.02
Record
89%
904-116 (1020)
Invested
$343.85
Value
$376.23
PnL
+$32.38
Record
59%
30350-21049 (51399)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$353.99
Value
$360.67
PnL
+$9.73
Record
58%
41458-30076 (71534)
Invested
$406.86
Value
$305.09
PnL
-$101.77
Record
52%
13706-12515 (26221)
Invested
$280
Value
$278.25
PnL
-$1.75
Record
51%
1385-1333 (2718)
Invested
$211.01
Value
$259.41
PnL
+$51.42
Record
55%
5707-4745 (10452)
Invested
$224.53
Value
$202.36
PnL
-$22.16
Record
48%
727-780 (1507)
Invested
$448.07
Value
$185.37
PnL
-$41.77
Record
60%
4031-2714 (6745)
Invested
$102.92
Value
$114.07
PnL
+$11.15
Record
58%
18567-13628 (32195)
Invested
$22.2
Value
$20.35
PnL
-$1.85
Record
67%
23253-11658 (34911)
TRCMCTR<$100Invested
$15.25
Value
$12.75
PnL
-$2.5
Record
55%
3934-3171 (7105)
Invested
$378.38
Value
$10.2
PnL
+$30.14
Record
68%
320-152 (472)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$4.96
Value
$5.81
PnL
+$0.85
Record
86%
5052-846 (5898)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$4.85
Value
$4.5
PnL
-$0.35
Record
51%
5965-5659 (11624)
Invested
$2.99
Value
$1.21
PnL
-$1.78
Record
39%
3159-4962 (8121)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
38791873984189
Yu-Hsiou Hsu — $1.7K
poshposh
Yu-Hsiou Hsu — $542.37
Paul973973
Yu-Hsiou Hsu — $398.98
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
Yu-Hsiou Hsu — $376.23
VeryLucky888
CTRMert Alkaya — $360.67
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Yu-Hsiou Hsu — $305.09
0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080
Yu-Hsiou Hsu — $278.25
Eulhunter
Yu-Hsiou Hsu — $259.41
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
CTRMert Alkaya — $202.36
thestingsnake
Yu-Hsiou Hsu — $185.37