Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Mert Alkaya, while the market favors Eliakim Coulibaly (65%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Monastir: Mert Alkaya vs Eliakim Coulibaly
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Mert Alkaya (80%) · Mert Alkaya at 36¢ · $47 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Mert Alkaya
5
Mert Alkaya 80%
$47.3
$3.21
Research grade
NeutralMert Alkaya at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Eliakim Coulibaly 65%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Mert Alkayaavg 34.9¢ | $16.59 | $18.06 | +$1.48 | 24% 200-640 (840) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Mert Alkayaavg 35¢ | $14.31 | $15.54 | +$1.23 | 24% 202-628 (830) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Mert Alkayaavg 35¢ | $7.93 | $8.13 | +$0.2 | 34% 162-314 (476) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Mert Alkayaavg 34¢ | $3.4 | $3.8 | +$0.4 | 25% 202-618 (820) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Eliakim Coulibalyavg 65¢ | $1.86 | $1.77 | -$0.09 | 48% 406-439 (845) |
Invested
$16.59
Value
$18.06
PnL
+$1.48
Record
24%
200-640 (840)
Invested
$14.31
Value
$15.54
PnL
+$1.23
Record
24%
202-628 (830)
Invested
$7.93
Value
$8.13
PnL
+$0.2
Record
34%
162-314 (476)
Invested
$3.4
Value
$3.8
PnL
+$0.4
Record
25%
202-618 (820)
Invested
$1.86
Value
$1.77
PnL
-$0.09
Record
48%
406-439 (845)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.