Set Handicap: Daniil Medvedev (-1.5) vs Daniel Merida Aguilar (+1.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Daniil Medvedev (29%) · Daniil Medvedev at 96¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 3

Daniil Medvedev96¢Daniel Merida Aguilar4¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Daniil Medvedev

Consensus Traders

Daniil Medvedev 29%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$-4.1K

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 95.9¢

+88% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralDaniil Medvedev at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Daniil Medvedev

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Daniil Medvedev96%

Daniel Merida Aguilar4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Daniil Medvedev2 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares10,217

Combined PnL$-3.3K

Daniel Merida Aguilar5 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares8,296

Combined PnL-$747.16

Daniil Medvedev — 29%Daniel Merida Aguilar — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Daniil Medvedev. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDaniel Merida Aguilar 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedDaniel Merida Aguilar 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Daniel Merida Aguilar 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ON Onomatopoeia777	Daniil Medvedevavg 51¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	$-3.3K	31% 20-44 (64)
VeryLucky888CTR	Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 49¢	$1.1K	$1.9K	+$832.5	58% 40752-29469 (70221)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR	Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 46.6¢	$302.03	$534.23	+$232.19	44% 388-484 (872)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR	Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 49¢	$126.03	$374.26	+$248.24	42% 2206-3008 (5214)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 48.9¢	$1.9K	$206.9	$-1.7K	53% 3104-2734 (5838)
MI mishipolisCTR	Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 48.9¢	$440.02	$26.85	-$373.99	50% 4441-4364 (8805)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Daniil Medvedevavg 54.3¢	$10.7	$6.65	-$4.05	47% 2041-2345 (4386)

Onomatopoeia777

Daniil Medvedev

Invested

$5,202.92

Value

$5.2K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

31%

20-44 (64)

VeryLucky888CTR

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Invested

$1,102.5

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$832.5

Record

58%

40752-29469 (70221)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Invested

$302.03

Value

$534.23

PnL

+$232.19

Record

44%

388-484 (872)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Invested

$126.03

Value

$374.26

PnL

+$248.24

Record

42%

2206-3008 (5214)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Invested

$1,892.99

Value

$206.9

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

53%

3104-2734 (5838)

mishipolisCTR

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Invested

$440.02

Value

$26.85

PnL

-$373.99

Record

50%

4441-4364 (8805)

ameisgoat11<$100

Daniil Medvedev

Invested

$10.7

Value

$6.65

PnL

-$4.05

Record

47%

2041-2345 (4386)

Research grade

NeutralDaniil Medvedev at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Daniil Medvedev

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Daniil Medvedev. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDaniel Merida Aguilar 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedDaniel Merida Aguilar 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Daniel Merida Aguilar 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Daniil Medvedev wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.