Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Daniel Merida Aguilar, while the market favors Daniil Medvedev (77%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Erste Bank Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Daniel Merida Aguilar (40%) · Daniel Merida Aguilar at 24¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Daniel Merida Aguilar
5
Daniel Merida Aguilar 40%
$6.4K
$126.85
22.8¢ → 23.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidDaniel Merida Aguilar at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Daniil Medvedev 77%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 22.8¢ | $3.6K | $3.7K | +$105.92 | 49% 18415-18835 (37250) |
 VeryLucky888 | Daniil Medvedevavg 76.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$0.21 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Daniil Medvedevavg 75.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$21.54 | 53% 299-268 (567) |
 Basquetipster | Daniil Medvedevavg 77¢ | $277.99 | $281.6 | +$1.81 | 69% 1652-759 (2411) |
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR<$100 | Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 23¢ | $60.49 | $57.86 | -$2.63 | 44% 384-482 (866) |
Invested
$3,621.53
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$105.92
Record
49%
18415-18835 (37250)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,232.26
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$0.21
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$1,024.79
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$21.54
Record
53%
299-268 (567)
BasquetipsterInvested
$277.99
Value
$281.6
PnL
+$1.81
Record
69%
1652-759 (2411)
Invested
$60.49
Value
$57.86
PnL
-$2.63
Record
44%
384-482 (866)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.