Rolex Paris Masters: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Sebastian Baez

18 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Daniel Merida Aguilar (60%) · Daniel Merida Aguilar at 100¢ · $89K held · ends Nov 11

Daniel Merida Aguilar>99¢Sebastian Baez<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Consensus Traders

Daniel Merida Aguilar 60%

Total Value

$88.5K

Combined PnL

$5.0K

Smart Money Entry

76.5¢ → 100¢

+31% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralDaniel Merida Aguilar at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Daniel Merida Aguilar

18 of 30 top traders (60%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Daniel Merida Aguilar100%

Sebastian Baez0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Daniel Merida Aguilar18 traders

Total Value$74.6K

Total Shares77,879

Combined PnL+$6.1K

Sebastian Baez12 traders

Total Value$13.9K

Total Shares54,120

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Daniel Merida Aguilar — 60%Sebastian Baez — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 79.2¢	$31.2K	$35.0K	+$3.8K	58% 48522-34672 (83194)
OM omnibus-076daa	Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 78.6¢	$12.6K	$12.7K	-$230.02	50% 19821-20164 (39985)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 71.9¢	$6.3K	$6.9K	+$585.04	52% 5708-5272 (10980)
NO NotJump	Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 69¢	$6.2K	$6.5K	+$286.51	44% 9904-12850 (22754)
KK kkookkooCTR	Sebastian Baezavg 41.4¢	$4.7K	$5.2K	+$413.66	51% 612-595 (1207)
one8tyfiveCTR	Sebastian Baezavg 34¢	$3.1K	$4.0K	+$988.02	61% 2124-1365 (3489)
RR rrooster	Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 77¢	$3.1K	$3.7K	+$642	63% 1358-800 (2158)
TH thestingsnake	Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 70¢	$3.0K	$3.5K	+$928.05	60% 4155-2786 (6941)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 67¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$242.43	48% 1153-1269 (2422)
SU suntoriCTR	Sebastian Baezavg 24.6¢	$4.3K	$1.6K	$-2.7K	45% 12937-15707 (28644)
0X 0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3CTR	Sebastian Baezavg 17¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$45.05	24% 101-314 (415)
EU Eulhunter	Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 66.8¢	$954.53	$1.3K	+$359.77	54% 5910-4956 (10866)
1L 1lovejump	Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 78¢	$5.3K	$1.3K	+$82.15	53% 682-607 (1289)
TG tghj20CTR	Sebastian Baezavg 27.8¢	$800	$835.76	+$35.76	48% 63-68 (131)
MO mouzsynapse	Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 70¢	$1.0K	$800.5	-$218.32	40% 1074-1636 (2710)
38 38791873984189	Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 98.4¢	$496.99	$494.04	-$0.32	47% 13029-14600 (27629)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Sebastian Baezavg 36¢	$300	$375	+$75	53% 3237-2847 (6084)
poshposh	Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 56¢	$168	$298.8	+$130.8	58% 11442-8290 (19732)
SE sentrioCTR	Sebastian Baezavg 22¢	$114.81	$234.84	+$120.03	50% 25009-24731 (49740)
PA Paul973973	Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 91.4¢	$200	$199.8	-$0.2	89% 933-119 (1052)
tradecraftCTR	Sebastian Baezavg 9.2¢	$157.27	$197.51	+$40.24	51% 6159-5875 (12034)
SM smithagent	Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 78.8¢	$130.77	$141.93	+$11.16	48% 3291-3584 (6875)
TRCM	Daniel Merida Aguilaravg 75.6¢	$118.16	$139.94	+$21.78	55% 3977-3206 (7183)
RN1CTR<$100	Sebastian Baezavg 3.6¢	$54.98	$77.1	+$22.12	54% 58154-50376 (108530)
0X 0xa3ae764341ef84ea0c57df7cf78d259fd34caca3CTR<$100	Sebastian Baezavg 9¢	$15	$15.83	+$0.83	30% 47-112 (159)

UpTheBlues

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Invested

$31,234.86

Value

$35.0K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

58%

48522-34672 (83194)

omnibus-076daa

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Invested

$12,584.42

Value

$12.7K

PnL

-$230.02

Record

50%

19821-20164 (39985)

CandleHammerDrums

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Invested

$6,310.59

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$585.04

Record

52%

5708-5272 (10980)

NotJump

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Invested

$6,197.55

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$286.51

Record

44%

9904-12850 (22754)

kkookkooCTR

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$4,738.74

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$413.66

Record

51%

612-595 (1207)

one8tyfiveCTR

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$3,053.88

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$988.02

Record

61%

2124-1365 (3489)

rrooster

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Invested

$3,077.99

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$642

Record

63%

1358-800 (2158)

thestingsnake

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Invested

$3,042.94

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$928.05

Record

60%

4155-2786 (6941)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Invested

$1,892.85

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$242.43

Record

48%

1153-1269 (2422)

suntoriCTR

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$4,313.1

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

45%

12937-15707 (28644)

0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3CTR

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$1,435.22

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$45.05

Record

24%

101-314 (415)

Eulhunter

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Invested

$954.53

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$359.77

Record

54%

5910-4956 (10866)

1lovejump

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Invested

$5,278.92

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$82.15

Record

53%

682-607 (1289)

tghj20CTR

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$800

Value

$835.76

PnL

+$35.76

Record

48%

63-68 (131)

mouzsynapse

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Invested

$1,018.82

Value

$800.5

PnL

-$218.32

Record

40%

1074-1636 (2710)

38791873984189

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Invested

$496.99

Value

$494.04

PnL

-$0.32

Record

47%

13029-14600 (27629)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$300

Value

$375

PnL

+$75

Record

53%

3237-2847 (6084)

poshposh

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Invested

$168

Value

$298.8

PnL

+$130.8

Record

58%

11442-8290 (19732)

sentrioCTR

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$114.81

Value

$234.84

PnL

+$120.03

Record

50%

25009-24731 (49740)

Paul973973

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Invested

$200

Value

$199.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

89%

933-119 (1052)

tradecraftCTR

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$157.27

Value

$197.51

PnL

+$40.24

Record

51%

6159-5875 (12034)

smithagent

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Invested

$130.77

Value

$141.93

PnL

+$11.16

Record

48%

3291-3584 (6875)

TRCM

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Invested

$118.16

Value

$139.94

PnL

+$21.78

Record

55%

3977-3206 (7183)

RN1CTR<$100

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$54.98

Value

$77.1

PnL

+$22.12

Record

54%

58154-50376 (108530)

0xa3ae764341ef84ea0c57df7cf78d259fd34caca3CTR<$100

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$15

Value

$15.83

PnL

+$0.83

Record

30%

47-112 (159)

Research grade

NeutralDaniel Merida Aguilar at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Daniel Merida Aguilar

18 of 30 top traders (60%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Daniel Merida Aguilar wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.