Resolution Proposed
A resolution has been proposed and is in the challenge window. Awaiting UMA oracle settlement.

Guayaquil: Joaquin Aguilar vs Miguel Tobon
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Joaquin Aguilar (67%) · Joaquin Aguilar at 99¢ · $8K held · awaiting resolution
⏳
Pending
6
Joaquin Aguilar 67%
1 arb excluded
$7.5K
-$16.95
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Joaquin Aguilaravg 94.5¢ | $5.8K | $5.8K | -$38.94 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Joaquin Aguilaravg 86.2¢ | $1.0K | $1.3K | +$300.88 | 54% 16875-14147 (31022) |
| └ Miguel Tobon leg | Miguel Tobonavg 10.5¢ | $303.17 | $691.08 | +$387.91 | |
| └ Joaquin Aguilar leg | Joaquin Aguilaravg 86.2¢ | $738.08 | $651.05 | -$87.03 | |
1L 1lovejump | Joaquin Aguilaravg 96.9¢ | $505.61 | $309.86 | +$4.54 | 54% 634-551 (1185) |
![]() HRTrading<$100 | Joaquin Aguilaravg 84.9¢ | $45.48 | $50.97 | +$5.49 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Joaquin Aguilaravg 76¢ | $24.32 | $24.32 | +$0 | 58% 18416-13508 (31924) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100 | Miguel Tobonavg 10¢ | $9 | $21.6 | +$12.6 | 52% 13570-12415 (25985) |
![]() tradecraftCTR<$100 | Miguel Tobonavg 1.7¢ | $3.69 | $3.05 | -$0.64 | 52% 5884-5521 (11405) |
Invested
$5,795.35
Value
$5.8K
PnL
-$38.94
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$1,041.25
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$300.88
Record
54%
16875-14147 (31022)
Both legs:
Invested
$505.61
Value
$309.86
PnL
+$4.54
Record
54%
634-551 (1185)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$45.48
Value
$50.97
PnL
+$5.49
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$24.32
Value
$24.32
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
18416-13508 (31924)
Invested
$9
Value
$21.6
PnL
+$12.6
Record
52%
13570-12415 (25985)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$3.69
Value
$3.05
PnL
-$0.64
Record
52%
5884-5521 (11405)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
UpTheBlues
Joaquin Aguilar — $5.8K
HomeRunHazard
ARBArbitrage — excluded
1lovejump
Joaquin Aguilar — $309.86

HRTrading
Joaquin Aguilar — $50.97
BillBenter2026
Joaquin Aguilar — $24.32
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
CTRMiguel Tobon — $21.6

tradecraft
CTRMiguel Tobon — $3.05