Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Joaquin Aguilar, while the market favors Lautaro Midon (69%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Guayaquil: Joaquin Aguilar vs Lautaro Midon

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Joaquin Aguilar (71%) · Joaquin Aguilar at 31¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 6

Joaquin Aguilar31¢Lautaro Midon69¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Joaquin Aguilar

Consensus Traders

Joaquin Aguilar 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

-$117.7

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 31¢

-38% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralJoaquin Aguilar at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Joaquin Aguilar

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Lautaro Midon 69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Joaquin Aguilar31%

Lautaro Midon69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Joaquin Aguilar5 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares7,307

Combined PnL-$150.94

Lautaro Midon2 traders

Total Value$444.03

Total Shares853

Combined PnL+$33.23

Joaquin Aguilar — 71%Lautaro Midon — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Joaquin Aguilaravg 50.8¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$139.21	38% 494-803 (1297)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Joaquin Aguilaravg 49.9¢	$1.7K	$1.1K	-$215.55	46% 8032-9481 (17513)
└ Lautaro Midon leg	Lautaro Midonavg 57.4¢	$597.93	$713.55	+$61.69
└ Joaquin Aguilar leg	Joaquin Aguilaravg 49.9¢	$624.7	$394.25	-$277.25
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Lautaro Midonavg 66.5¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$152	52% 13735-12534 (26269)
└ Lautaro Midon leg	Lautaro Midonavg 66.5¢	$665	$695	+$30
└ Joaquin Aguilar leg	Joaquin Aguilaravg 47¢	$518.82	$336.82	-$182
RN1CTR	Joaquin Aguilaravg 46.9¢	$691.95	$730.32	+$38.37	54% 56351-48500 (104851)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Lautaro Midonavg 45.6¢	$408.77	$501.09	+$92.32	59% 45388-31736 (77124)
└ Lautaro Midon leg	Lautaro Midonavg 45.6¢	$232.67	$361.89	+$129.22
└ Joaquin Aguilar leg	Joaquin Aguilaravg 36.7¢	$176.1	$139.2	-$36.9
RE RebornAthena	Lautaro Midonavg 48¢	$400	$433.33	+$33.33	53% 2005-1803 (3808)
1L 1lovejumpCTR	Joaquin Aguilaravg 53¢	$424	$377.33	-$37.07	53% 655-576 (1231)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Joaquin Aguilaravg 45.8¢	$52.65	$38.53	-$14.12	38% 3225-5275 (8500)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Lautaro Midonavg 54¢	$10.8	$10.7	-$0.1	56% 1839-1435 (3274)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Joaquin Aguilaravg 43¢	$8.6	$9.7	+$1.1	51% 1408-1352 (2760)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$139.21

Record

38%

494-803 (1297)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$1,655.71

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$215.55

Record

46%

8032-9481 (17513)

Both legs:

Lautaro Midon$597.9357.4¢+$61.69

Joaquin Aguilar$624.749.9¢-$277.25

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$1,183.82

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$152

Record

52%

13735-12534 (26269)

Both legs:

Lautaro Midon$66566.5¢+$30

Joaquin Aguilar$518.8247¢-$182

RN1CTR

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$691.95

Value

$730.32

PnL

+$38.37

Record

54%

56351-48500 (104851)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$408.77

Value

$501.09

PnL

+$92.32

Record

59%

45388-31736 (77124)

Both legs:

Lautaro Midon$232.6745.6¢+$129.22

Joaquin Aguilar$176.136.7¢-$36.9

RebornAthena

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$400

Value

$433.33

PnL

+$33.33

Record

53%

2005-1803 (3808)

1lovejumpCTR

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$424

Value

$377.33

PnL

-$37.07

Record

53%

655-576 (1231)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$52.65

Value

$38.53

PnL

-$14.12

Record

38%

3225-5275 (8500)

SchruteBucks<$100

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$10.8

Value

$10.7

PnL

-$0.1

Record

56%

1839-1435 (3274)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$8.6

Value

$9.7

PnL

+$1.1

Record

51%

1408-1352 (2760)

Research grade

NeutralJoaquin Aguilar at 31%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Joaquin Aguilar

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Lautaro Midon 69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Joaquin Aguilar wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.1%

31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$202.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

302.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.