Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Joaquin Aguilar, while the market favors Hugo Dellien (62%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Guayaquil: Joaquin Aguilar vs Hugo Dellien

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Joaquin Aguilar (100%) · Joaquin Aguilar at 39¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 8

Joaquin Aguilar39¢Hugo Dellien61¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Joaquin Aguilar

Consensus Traders

Joaquin Aguilar 100%

Total Value

$17.5K

Combined PnL

$970.85

Smart Money Entry

36.2¢ → 38.5¢

+6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralJoaquin Aguilar at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Joaquin Aguilar

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Hugo Dellien 62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Joaquin Aguilar39%

Hugo Dellien62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Joaquin Aguilar8 traders

Total Value$17.5K

Total Shares45,888

Combined PnL+$970.85

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Joaquin Aguilar. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJoaquin Aguilar 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJoaquin Aguilar 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedJoaquin Aguilar 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Joaquin Aguilar 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Joaquin Aguilaravg 36¢	$9.5K	$10.1K	+$658.57	65% 1758-962 (2720)
RN1CTR	Joaquin Aguilaravg 35.5¢	$3.5K	$3.8K	+$200	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Joaquin Aguilaravg 39¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$25.17	38% 505-817 (1322)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Joaquin Aguilaravg 35¢	$700	$750	+$50	58% 4067-2890 (6957)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Joaquin Aguilaravg 36¢	$1,000	$685.63	+$74.43	51% 3950-3850 (7800)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Joaquin Aguilaravg 35.6¢	$171.66	$180.75	+$9.09	61% 13793-8671 (22464)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Joaquin Aguilaravg 35.9¢	$87.64	$93.94	+$3.86	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Joaquin Aguilaravg 36¢	$1.8	$1.88	+$0.07	52% 7504-6793 (14297)

darkumbreon88CTR

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$9,483.37

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$658.57

Record

65%

1758-962 (2720)

RN1CTR

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$3,550

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$200

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$1,963.16

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$25.17

Record

38%

505-817 (1322)

Bagwell306CTR

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$700

Value

$750

PnL

+$50

Record

58%

4067-2890 (6957)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$1,000

Value

$685.63

PnL

+$74.43

Record

51%

3950-3850 (7800)

LilybaeumCTR

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$171.66

Value

$180.75

PnL

+$9.09

Record

61%

13793-8671 (22464)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$87.64

Value

$93.94

PnL

+$3.86

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Joaquin Aguilar

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$0.07

Record

52%

7504-6793 (14297)

Research grade

NeutralJoaquin Aguilar at 39%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Joaquin Aguilar

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Hugo Dellien 62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Joaquin Aguilar. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJoaquin Aguilar 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJoaquin Aguilar 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedJoaquin Aguilar 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Joaquin Aguilar 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Joaquin Aguilar wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.