Brisbane 3: Enzo Aguiard vs Akira Santillan

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Akira Santillan (43%) · Akira Santillan at 57¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 16

Enzo Aguiard43¢Akira Santillan57¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Akira Santillan

Consensus Traders

Akira Santillan 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$0.56

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 57.5¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAkira Santillan at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Akira Santillan

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Enzo Aguiard43%

Akira Santillan57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Akira Santillan3 traders

Total Value$461.37

Total Shares802

Combined PnL+$28.79

Enzo Aguiard4 traders

Total Value$442.5

Total Shares1,041

Combined PnL-$28.23

Akira Santillan — 43%Enzo Aguiard — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Akira Santillan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Akira Santillan) and the top 1000 (4 on Enzo Aguiard) disagree here.

ctrEnzo Aguiard 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedAkira Santillan 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Enzo Aguiard 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Enzo Aguiardavg 41¢	$562.89	$594.99	+$32.1	33% 108-219 (327)
└ Enzo Aguiard leg	Enzo Aguiardavg 41¢	$349.45	$362.32	+$12.79
└ Akira Santillan leg	Akira Santillanavg 52.7¢	$213.32	$232.67	+$19.31
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Akira Santillanavg 53¢	$328.6	$356.5	+$27.9	1% 1-116 (117)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR	Enzo Aguiardavg 50¢	$222.22	$188.89	-$33.33	0% 1-225 (226)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Enzo Aguiardavg 42¢	$126.61	$128.12	+$1.51	5% 29-539 (568)
VeryLucky888	Akira Santillanavg 57¢	$101.13	$101.99	+$0.86	52% 119-110 (229)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Enzo Aguiardavg 40.8¢	$75.02	$78.06	+$3.04	28% 130-331 (461)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Enzo Aguiardavg 42¢	$46.87	$47.43	+$0.56	1% 1-121 (122)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Akira Santillanavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.88	+$0.03	18% 55-248 (303)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Enzo Aguiard

Invested

$562.89

Value

$594.99

PnL

+$32.1

Record

33%

108-219 (327)

Both legs:

Enzo Aguiard$349.4541¢+$12.79

Akira Santillan$213.3252.7¢+$19.31

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Akira Santillan

Invested

$328.6

Value

$356.5

PnL

+$27.9

Record

1-116 (117)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR

Enzo Aguiard

Invested

$222.22

Value

$188.89

PnL

-$33.33

Record

1-225 (226)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Enzo Aguiard

Invested

$126.61

Value

$128.12

PnL

+$1.51

Record

29-539 (568)

VeryLucky888

Akira Santillan

Invested

$101.13

Value

$101.99

PnL

+$0.86

Record

52%

119-110 (229)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Enzo Aguiard

Invested

$75.02

Value

$78.06

PnL

+$3.04

Record

28%

130-331 (461)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Enzo Aguiard

Invested

$46.87

Value

$47.43

PnL

+$0.56

Record

1-121 (122)

ameisgoat11<$100

Akira Santillan

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.88

PnL

+$0.03

Record

18%

55-248 (303)

Research grade

NeutralAkira Santillan at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Akira Santillan

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Akira Santillan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Akira Santillan) and the top 1000 (4 on Enzo Aguiard) disagree here.

ctrEnzo Aguiard 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedAkira Santillan 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Enzo Aguiard 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Akira Santillan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.