Guayaquil: Valerio Aboian vs Nick Hardt

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Valerio Aboian (75%) · Valerio Aboian at 55¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 6

Valerio Aboian55¢Nick Hardt45¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Valerio Aboian

Consensus Traders

Valerio Aboian 75%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.5K

Combined PnL

$889.35

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 54.5¢

-2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralValerio Aboian at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Valerio Aboian

9 of 12 top traders (75%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Valerio Aboian55%

Nick Hardt46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Valerio Aboian9 traders

Total Value$13.1K

Total Shares21,075

Combined PnL+$665.86

Nick Hardt3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,511

Combined PnL+$223.49

Valerio Aboian — 75%Nick Hardt — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Valerio Aboianavg 62.2¢	$6.5K	$6.9K	+$468.11	59% 45388-31736 (77124)
└ Valerio Aboian leg	Valerio Aboianavg 62.2¢	$4.1K	$3.6K	-$505.91
└ Nick Hardt leg	Nick Hardtavg 32.2¢	$2.4K	$3.3K	+$974.02
RN1	Valerio Aboianavg 65.2¢	$4.6K	$5.5K	+$918.75	54% 56351-48500 (104851)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Valerio Aboianavg 43.9¢	$4.8K	$4.3K	-$531.41	38% 494-803 (1297)
OL olpyARB<$100	Valerio Aboianavg 61.8¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$149.04	72% 391-149 (540)
└ Nick Hardt leg	Nick Hardtavg 43¢	$1.3K	$1.9K	+$557.45
└ Valerio Aboian leg	Valerio Aboianavg 61.8¢	$1.9K	$1.2K	-$706.5
SH SharkVisionARB<$100	Valerio Aboianavg 66.7¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$263.09	70% 1352-566 (1918)
└ Valerio Aboian leg	Valerio Aboianavg 66.7¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$148.81
└ Nick Hardt leg	Nick Hardtavg 45.2¢	$999.74	$885.46	-$114.27
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Valerio Aboianavg 70.1¢	$4.2K	$1.8K	-$564.71	46% 8032-9481 (17513)
└ Valerio Aboian leg	Valerio Aboianavg 70.1¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$432.07
└ Nick Hardt leg	Nick Hardtavg 47.8¢	$639.77	$608.71	-$132.64
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Nick Hardtavg 34.3¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$289.53	60% 4045-2729 (6774)
└ Nick Hardt leg	Nick Hardtavg 34.3¢	$820.1	$1.1K	-$234.02
└ Valerio Aboian leg	Valerio Aboianavg 61.2¢	$701.92	$624.77	-$55.51
MI MilesY	Valerio Aboianavg 84.4¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$1.21	57% 614-460 (1074)
VeryLucky888CTR	Nick Hardtavg 59¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$50.06	58% 41528-30164 (71692)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Valerio Aboianavg 60.6¢	$854.58	$1.1K	+$267.4	52% 13735-12534 (26269)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Valerio Aboianavg 68.9¢	$1.0K	$486.07	-$87.42	53% 655-576 (1231)
└ Valerio Aboian leg	Valerio Aboianavg 68.9¢	$319.95	$253	-$108.5
└ Nick Hardt leg	Nick Hardtavg 36.7¢	$187.75	$233.07	+$21.08
poshposh	Valerio Aboianavg 65.9¢	$413.07	$422.16	+$9.09	59% 9968-6940 (16908)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Nick Hardtavg 38.7¢	$211.96	$334.44	+$122.47	38% 3225-5275 (8500)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Nick Hardtavg 50¢	$231.61	$282.57	+$50.96	47% 2472-2784 (5256)
NA NatoAlfista	Valerio Aboianavg 55¢	$114.73	$113.69	-$1.04	50% 3805-3765 (7570)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Valerio Aboianavg 65¢	$8.4	$10	+$1.6	85% 5114-869 (5983)
HRTrading<$100	Valerio Aboianavg 73.9¢	$7.76	$7.77	+$0.27	52% 4041-3673 (7714)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Valerio Aboianavg 39¢	$1.95	$1.95	+$0	47% 2277-2560 (4837)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$6,460.37

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$468.11

Record

59%

45388-31736 (77124)

Both legs:

Valerio Aboian$4,107.7462.2¢-$505.91

Nick Hardt$2,352.6332.2¢+$974.02

RN1

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$4,550.42

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$918.75

Record

54%

56351-48500 (104851)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$4,800

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$531.41

Record

38%

494-803 (1297)

olpyARB<$100

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$3,246

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$149.04

Record

72%

391-149 (540)

Both legs:

Nick Hardt$1,331.743¢+$557.45

Valerio Aboian$1,914.3161.8¢-$706.5

SharkVisionARB<$100

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$2,476.74

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$263.09

Record

70%

1352-566 (1918)

Both legs:

Valerio Aboian$1,477.0166.7¢-$148.81

Nick Hardt$999.7445.2¢-$114.27

38791873984189ARB<$100

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$4,205.8

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$564.71

Record

46%

8032-9481 (17513)

Both legs:

Valerio Aboian$1,545.3670.1¢-$432.07

Nick Hardt$639.7747.8¢-$132.64

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Nick Hardt

Invested

$1,751.63

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$289.53

Record

60%

4045-2729 (6774)

Both legs:

Nick Hardt$820.134.3¢-$234.02

Valerio Aboian$701.9261.2¢-$55.51

MilesY

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$1,654.01

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$1.21

Record

57%

614-460 (1074)

VeryLucky888CTR

Nick Hardt

Invested

$1,506.91

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$50.06

Record

58%

41528-30164 (71692)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$854.58

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$267.4

Record

52%

13735-12534 (26269)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$1,031.12

Value

$486.07

PnL

-$87.42

Record

53%

655-576 (1231)

Both legs:

Valerio Aboian$319.9568.9¢-$108.5

Nick Hardt$187.7536.7¢+$21.08

poshposh

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$413.07

Value

$422.16

PnL

+$9.09

Record

59%

9968-6940 (16908)

topdogbigboiCTR

Nick Hardt

Invested

$211.96

Value

$334.44

PnL

+$122.47

Record

38%

3225-5275 (8500)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Nick Hardt

Invested

$231.61

Value

$282.57

PnL

+$50.96

Record

47%

2472-2784 (5256)

NatoAlfista

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$114.73

Value

$113.69

PnL

-$1.04

Record

50%

3805-3765 (7570)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$8.4

Value

$10

PnL

+$1.6

Record

85%

5114-869 (5983)

HRTrading<$100

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$7.76

Value

$7.77

PnL

+$0.27

Record

52%

4041-3673 (7714)

ameisgoat11<$100

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.95

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2277-2560 (4837)

Research grade

NeutralValerio Aboian at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Valerio Aboian

9 of 12 top traders (75%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Valerio Aboian wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.